The methods I have been discussing and the results displayed have given no consideration to what a company does to make its earnings. Using Technical Analysis (and fundamental analysis at times) as the primary reason for our buy and sell signals gives no consideration to the reasons “why” a share is performing as it is, it is “as it is” so we buy and sell based on momentum of the price and the emotion of the crowd.
However some people are deeply concerned about company’s effect on the environment and the impact the companies policy may make socially. Our trading rules may trigger a buy in a gambling company and you may be passionately opposed to gambling, or you feel strongly opposed to alcohol and consider it a social problem and do not want to support companies in this sector, in this case you will need to do your own screening of stocks to suit your personal beliefs.
For example for many years I have specialized in the gold market, particularly gold shares. I believe Governments throughout the world create financial instability via central banks by the printing of paper money. With no backing of a physical asset like gold that can not be manipulated, they over stimulate economies creating booms and busts adding to the hardships of many and complicating an already intricate world.
The ownership of gold I see as a positive for global stability and I support the industry selectively.
Mining is a controversial issue and I agree with the concerns of many, recently one of the worlds biggest gold miners, Newcrest Mining of Australia has taken over Lihir gold of Papua New Guinea. Lihir has a horrid environmental record in that country in regard to polluting river systems and for that reason I would not buy it. Hopefully Newcrest will do a better job.
I remember as a child playing and swimming with children in that country where I lived a short while, I don’t like the thought of that no longer being able to happen because we in the western economies support a company with little concern for social liberties.
This is my choice, and we all need to make our decisions and live with them, it is possible to still make money and trade well by being a little selective.
Below is a guideline as to what to look for before deciding to invest in a company, more information can be found on the ASX website or by googling a companies website
The signals below are so you can follow trades that make NEW 52 week highs.
A new 52 week high is when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.
If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW 52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often printed in the papers or posted elsewhere on the internet.
Also, the signals provided are the ones used in the Course System 2 and the Course Pyramid System, WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.
Those of you that have done my courses or attended personal trading lessons will know what Bull filters are. It is at your discretion to employ these filters or not, it is best that you have decided if you are to employ the filters or not, and STICK TO that decision.
Other parameters (along with the 52 week closing high) to be met for the signal to be valid are: The 11 EMA weekly is to be above a 12 EMA weekly (to define the trend has been in place a few months, not a recent price spike which is likely to fail)
The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 7/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 7/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.
Of course the 7 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.
So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!
Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)
The 11 ema to be above the 12 ema
The 7 ema to be above the 12ema
if the 7 ema crosses below the 12 ema
The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and taught to private clients or at my courses.
STOCKS IN THE ASX 200
NONE THIS WEEK
STOCKS IN THE ASX 200-300
NONE THIS WEEK
STOCKS IN THE ASX 300-500
Remember these scans are not using a Bull filter. The signals are for the simple 52 week CLOSING high entry and 7/12 EMA crossover exit system only.
This chart below shows two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume and the Chaiken Money Flow (displayed in green) using a 24 week format.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 12/1/18: (see chart below)
The 3 month long rally may be tiring, the upward momentum of the volume indicators is slowing. Not
many new 52 week highs this week. Buyers can only maintain their enthusiasm for so long before they
back off, for prices to keep going up buyers need to remain committed, or prices go sideways or fall.
We may get some sector rotation now, as traders look for the best place to be, is it resources?
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 5/1/18: (see chart below)
The rally continues. more volume this week with a 4 day trading week. Peters Portfolio (s) performed ok, go
to the portfolio page for details.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 29/12/18: (see chart below)
low volumes and price action this week because of the three day trading week, next week may be similar,
although we do have a 4 day trading week. My two portfolios went sideways this week.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 22/12/17: (see chart below)
As the volumes of the last few weeks have been suggesting, the market continues to rise putting on another 80 points, or
around 1.3 %.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 15/12/17: (see chart below)
THIS WEEKS CHART LOOKS THE SAME AS LAST WEEK, BIG VOLUMES, SIDEWAYS PRICE.
MY PORTFOLIO WENT SIDEWAYS AGAIN THIS WEEK, HOWEVER VOLUMES SUGGEST HIGHER PRICES ARE COMING.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/12/17: (see chart below)
Hardly a change from last week, except volumes look stronger.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 1/12/17: (see chart below)
The rally continues but slows. However the OBV indicator is outperforming the price suggesting more upward price action
is to come. Notice too the high volume bar this week, as buyers and sellers compete in their feelings about what will happen
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 24/11/17: (see chart below)
Observing the weekly bar chart below the rally continues, its follow the trend at the moment until our systems tell us otherwise.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 17/11/17: (see chart below)
The rally slows but strength remains. A few less 52 week highs this week, indicating the buyers are sated, as is indicated
by the small pullback in the index. I wrote a news letter this week giving more detail, if you did not receive it re subsribe
or go to the newsletter archives to read my recent comments.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 10/11/17: (see chart below)
The Aussie market continues to play catch up to the US markets. The breakout from consolidation becoming more obvious
every week. Volume indicators continue to confirm the rally. You may like to revisit a news letter I wrote in April, before my
study break, nothing has changed, if anything the analysis I made back then has ramped up. Click on the link below.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 03/11/17: (see chart below)
Keeping things simple with a line chart, its clear to see the strength of the XAO. Its a 2.5 year breakout to the upside,
volume supports the move up. As I said last week, sometimes markets wait for no one, as has been the case this week with
the index continuing to rise. Another 12 new 52 week highs this week in the top 500. If the US market does not fall over
a big rally into Xmas is possible, as mentioned in last weeks comments. Also look at the monthly chart I have posted, there is a
beautiful Zen saying "if it is not necessary to do anything, it is necesssary to do nothing", so look at the chart,
I dont need to say anything.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 27/10/17: (see chart below)
The market pauses this week but volumes remain upward. Now one would "expect" a pause at these levels but this market
is strong and it may not wait for anyone. Another 10 new 52 week highs in the ASX 200 this week, indicating buyers are
far outweighing sellers. We have just 2 more days of trading before the end of the month, it will be interesting to see how
the monthly chart looks then, institutions drive the market, so will they buy more or back off before the end of the month?
We may get 2 volatile days, other reasons will be given, but it will mostly be caused by the big money adjusting portfolios
as they postion for the probability of a strong rally into Christmas. Last calendar year the market rose 14%, if it does it
again this year it will rise to around 6500 points, leaving a 500+ point rally till end of year, who knows.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 20/10/17: (see chart below)
Price, its the ultimate boss in trading, you can speculate and analyse all you want, using volumes, trend lines, indicators, cycles
etc., but at the end of all the gnashing of teeth, hope and worry, price tells all. This week I have posted a simple line chart to remove
the noise our minds create when looking at more detailed charts. Price has broken up past old resistance, 17 new 52 week highs
this week, this market is behaving like the release of a coiled spring, held down for months of consolidation. Once 6000 points
consolidates the next target is 6800, the old highs of the pre GFC......see the 2nd chart this week which is a monthly with adjusted volume
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 13/10/17: (see chart below)
Take off! the market comes to its senses with small and mid caps leading the way, as can be seen above with most new highs in the 300 to 500 sector. A few clients have emailed and rung, saying their portfolios have rallied well the last month, patience for sticking out the grind of the long sideways period being rewarded, the only consistent clue to this rally coming was that the OBV never really dropped off, or flashed big selling volume, as I mentioned 3 weeks ago.
I am back in the market after a very enjoyable break, when I finish loading I will post the portfolio.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 6/10/17: (see chart below)
Is the consoidation period in the XAO coming to an end?
The price closes above the medium term EMA. The most impressive volume indicator of the three below is the CMF as it looks to break its 24 week downtrend line. The OBV and the volume bar chart still look lacklustre.
However my momentum systems are saying buy, with many new signals this week. Small and medium cap stocks again begin to move up, leaving their gorilla counterparts (the top 20) behind, as can be seen in the the 2nd chart posted this week of the XSO (Small Ords). The probability this week is a pause inthe rally. Dont expect it, have no expectations, trade your system.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 29/9/17: (see chart below)
The market continues to go sideways to down, but volumes are low suggesting sellers are not committed. OBV shows upward momentum, suggesting too that there is underlying strength. October is often an upward month.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 22/9/17: (see chart below)
The market continues its bearish look, its still a sideways market, not a sell off, the bull filter keeps us out of the market. The old saying "if the market doesnt shake you out it will wear you out" is certainly apt at the moment.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 15/9/17: (see chart below)
This sideways pattern in the XAO has now continued for 18 weeks, I have been trading for over 20 years and I dont recall a pattern like this, goes to show (again) how markets are unpredictable. The weekly close on the last bar on this chart looks bearish, but one bar does not make a trend or pattern. Volumes indicators are alittle conflicting, with OBV up but CMF down, indicating sellers dominate. Its a weak time of year, September is often bearish, the bull filter is saying wait, which means dont buy but hold positions until stopped. Simple techinically, difficult emotionally. Stay strong.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/9/17: (see chart below)
Regular readers will notice I missed last week, apologies for that. This market continues to experience a long sideways move. Volumes as you can see from the chart are on support. September can be a weak month and with whats been happening OS the US market could sell off and we will probably follow. However in our market the battle of the heavyweights continues with resources up and banks down, until we get those 2 sectors going in the same direction
the sideways look of the XAO will continue.
MARKET COMMENTS: As of 25/8/17: (see chart below)
There are 2 charts below, a weekly bar chart and a monthly line chart, the monthly is displayed in its line format to remove the "noise" we often read into trends. Volume indicators on the monthly chart have been adjusted to suit the longer time frame. The trend is a grinding slow one, but the main thing to notice is, its up. Looking at that monthly chart it seems set to continue, despite the chop the weekly chart has provided the last few months. The OBV on the monthly chart is particularly impressive, will the price catch up to the indicator soon?