MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 23/2/24: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period

xao 23rd Feb 2024

I have been mentioning the volume indicators for a few weeks now - they still look indecisive. Traders and investors are still deciding what to do, buy, sell or hold. There could be a rotation on in my opinion, as money looks for the best place to be. There is weakness in the Materials and Energy sectors which are some of the biggest sectors, its dragging down the XAO.  Even Health had a fall this week but that was probably largely impacted by PME. But there is huge strength in other sectors like Tech, Discretionary, Industrials and Finance. This "rotational"  strength is reflected in the number of 52 week closing highs this week.

PME: well I mentioned it last week and it bounced well rising over 12% this week. In my opinion it shows the value of learning to read oversold bullish divergences like PME was showing last week. I think I should write a paper on it for those interested - let me know if that's a good idea by writing to me here....

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Apologies: to those who logged in last week to Go Markets seminar to hear me present. A combination of technical and family occurrences made it impossible for me to attend. Mike Smith from Go Markets has kindly organised a special "catch up" conference this coming Wednesday night at 8pm. Below is the seminar link for Wednesday night

https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/8843010719428854103

Until next week, 52 week closing high alerts below - lots of them.

Peter

52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close  16/2/2024

Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500

300: ABB AZJ BGA CDA LOV MMS OML PWH SQ2 WTC

300-500: ANG GNX SFC SGF TBN

Please note: in the eBook I wrote in 2016 (available for purchase on this website on the link below) I have made some changes to the system. If you have bought the eBook I am happy to email you a PDF explaining the changes I made, which from testing and trading does improve the system.

Here is the link to the eBook Mindful Trading using Winning Probability written in 2016 -

and the internationally published The Zen Trader (2022) - now in three languages.

https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/products-and-services/e-books/mindful-trading-using-winning-probability

IMPORTANT POINTS TO CONSIDER

A new 52 week high for this system is classified when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.

If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW  52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often given elsewhere.

The signals provided are  WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.

The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 5/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 5/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.

Of course the 5 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.

So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!

Entry:

Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)

The 5 ema to be above the 12ema

Exit:

if the 5 ema crosses below the 12 ema

The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and  taught to private clients or at my courses.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 16/2/24: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period

xao 16th Feb 24

This week we have a conflicting signal on the volume indicators. You can see the MFI is coming down, but the OBV still looks strong. Also the ultimate indicator, which is the price, has finished the week strongly. So "two out of three ain't bad".

This week the Russell 2000 in the US was strong, although it looks a little overbought the rally is one to notice. Last night the US indexes slowed a little but commodities had a strong night, even lithium and gold rallied a bit, giving some hope to the suffering traders holding some of those stocks.

It's been another strong week for 52 week closing highs, they are listed below.

The chart below is PME, it's one of the feature charts in my presentation tomorrow. It took quite a hit, breaking decisively through the first line of support being the horizontal green line. It's very difficult emotionally when this happens, particularly if you have been disciplined and riding the trend since the entry. As you can see the moving average exit from the Mindful Trading book has not signaled a sell. You can see an older trade where it did around May 2023. Technically the MFI looks bearish but the more robust OBV looks ok, in fact it is showing a bullish divergence. The black EMA on the chart is the 24 (or 120 daily), price can often bounce off this level so for shorter term traders this is a stock to watch, in my opinion. This is not financial advice.

PME

 A reminder about my presentation, here is the link - I am on at 1pm

https://www.gomarkets.com/au/trading-mastery-2024/

Until next week!

Peter.

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 9/2/24: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period

 XAO 9TH FEB 24

Not a lot of change from last week. The rally has slowed a bit while the market (traders and investors) take a breath. Money flow and OBV has pulled back as stops are tightened and some selling has happened, traders becoming more cautious. The indicators last week did suggest there could be a reversal or either some consolidation. It can be a tough time when markets are strong but fear kicks in, many sell too early to lock in profits, to then see the market rally again. That experience then results in frustration and FOMO, traders jump back in and then get caught with buying the top.

The answer? Have a method and stick to it, know your exit and your risk (trade sizing)  should have been pre-planned BEFORE you bought. It will be interesting to see what happens this week, if the market kicks up again, consolidates (like this week) or falls. Speaking of dealing with emotion etc, please read the note below and check out the link.

Until next week!

Peter

 PLEASE NOTE: I have been invited to be a presenter, with four other traders for a free webinar on the 17th Feb. The conference is sponsored by Go Markets and runs between 11am to 4pm and I will be speaking at 1pm. Registrations can be made on the link below and my talk is "Trading with a Zen Mind" a talk I gave at the ATAA National Conference last year and also in Shanghai (online) last weekend.

https://www.gomarkets.com/au/trading-mastery-2024/

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 2/2/24: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period

xao 2nd feb 24

Hi all, I am back. Well what a month its been. The talk was bullish, then bearish, now uncertain. Crikey! If ever there was a good example to ignore the news and follow your process its been the last month!

I said in my comments a month ago that the MFI could rally all the way up to the 80 reading, it still looks strong at the moment. However the OBV is showing a bearish divergence and price is hovering around old resistance, so it's a probability that there will be a pullback or some consolidation soon. Despite those things, the market is certainly still bullish and it is good to see the markets going up. There are 15 buy alerts this week for the eBook system Mindful Trading using Winning Probability. Wow, that is a lot, so the market certainly is raging.

 PLEASE NOTE: I have been invited to be a presenter, with four other traders for a free webinar on the 17th Feb. The conference is sponsored by Go Markets and runs between 11am to 4pm and I will be speaking at 1pm. Registrations are not yet open but when they do I will post the link here. I will also send an email soon with more details. Hope to see you online.

Until next week, all the best

Peter

 

 

Hello folks, I am way on holidays for all of January. I will return to posting 52 week highs and market comments on my return.

Good luck with your trading and investing , Regards Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 29/12/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period

XAO 29th Dec 23

When we look at longer term charts (which very few people do) and take a moment to reflect, one could be entitled to ask the question "what was all the fuss about?

During Covid the OBV remained in an uptrend, it did so again 2 months ago when the market hovered around 7,000. At that time the MFI was deeply oversold and now it is approaching an over bought level. However, it could easily stretch up to the 80 level. Then the price could continue more and the MFI might then show a negative divergence as it has in the past (April 2019 and July 2020) . Of course that is all conjecture, although its worth remembering that nothing goes up in a straight line and at some point buyers will take a breather as they start to believe the market is too extended in the short term.

Only 2 months ago the talk was doom and gloom and recession - now its bull market into 2024 and beyond! I agree at the moment the chart looks strong, price and volumes are up and there appears to be no weakness. Volume last week was low as it was only a 3 day trading week and the same will happen for this coming 1st week in January. The low volume hasn't stopped a strong performance from the 52 week high system, registering another twelve this week. They are listed below.

Only one chart this week, hey its holiday time! Speaking of holidays I am overseas for most of January and Cynthia has told me I am not allowed to trade or be on the computer :)

I will do my best to post the weekly charts but if I don't, you know why!

Happy New Year

Peter

52 week closing highs as of the Fridays close  29/12/2023

Below are the alerts from a scan of the ASX 300 and the 300 to 500

300: ADT BHP BKW CBA CIA NXT PMV QUB SFR

300-500: BLY GQG QOR

Please note: in the eBook I wrote in 2016 (available for purchase on this website on the link below) I have made some changes to the system. If you have bought the eBook I am happy to email you a PDF explaining the changes I made, which from testing and trading does improve the system.

Here is the link to the eBook Mindful Trading using Winning Probability written in 2016 -

and the internationally published The Zen Trader (2022) - now in three languages.

https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/products-and-services/e-books/mindful-trading-using-winning-probability

IMPORTANT POINTS TO CONSIDER

A new 52 week high for this system is classified when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.

If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW  52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often given elsewhere.

The signals provided are  WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.

The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 5/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 5/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.

Of course the 5 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.

So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!

Entry:

Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)

The 5 ema to be above the 12ema

Exit:

if the 5 ema crosses below the 12 ema

The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and  taught to private clients or at my courses.

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 22/12/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow Indicator using a 13 period

 XAO 22nd Dec 23

Well the rally continues! A pause was not what we got but a continuation. Another example of how difficult it can be to pick tops or bottoms and "going with the flow" is the most profitable but also the most difficult psychologically.

The price price blew through that overhead dotted trend line (producing twelve new 52 week closing highs) and dragged the volume indicators along for the ride. With no divergences to speak of the next resistance seems higher up the chart, perhaps around 6900. Next, let's look at the Small Ords index.

XSO 22nd Dec 23

 My trading friends will know I watch this index closely. That is because I tend to trade this sector more than the large caps as I think that is where more opportunities are - but I have been wrong so don't take my word for it! This sector was showing a strong bullish divergence around 9 weeks ago and its been straight up since then. It is a good sign to see this sector rally as it indicates a broad based rally in the market, something that has taken a while to happen. Next, the Russell 2000 in the US.

Russell 22nd Dec 23

The Russell has finally broken above the 18 month resistance indicated by that dotted trend line, however it does appear over stretched to me with some negative divergence showing on the volume indicators - but I said that last week and the price just blew up past the neg divergence. However the SP500 (chart not shown) in the US looks like it could be double topping so we still need to be mindful that this rally has been strong and nothing is permanent. One more chart!

 XGD 22nd Dec 23

I did say last week I wanted to see more volume in this index of the gold stocks in Australia.  The OBV has obliged and broken its down trend line but it's not the most convincing price and volume action. However during the Xmas trading season volumes in the spot gold market are thin because many traders are on holidays.  This can result in some big moves in the gold price and also this sector,  so I will be watching closely.

Merry Christmas,

Until next week

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 15/12/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow indicator

 XAO 15th Dec 23

Last week was quite a rally. I wont go into details as to why as I am sure many of you have read or heard the reasons. Focusing on the now it appears the index is approaching some resistance. The OBV is trending up well but it has not reached the high it made it January. Last week I mentioned a slight divergence between the price and the MFI. That divergence still exists and considering the rally the question needs to be asked "will we get a pause?" If market prediction is about probability I would think the answer is yes. Gold stocks.........

Xgd 15th Dec 23

 I often get questions about the gold stocks and I too find this an interesting sector. The price recovered strongly this week from an earlier pull back. The MFI is back testing the trend line, but - I would really like to see that OBV get stronger. Until that gets a clear break to the upside I think gold stocks will remain in a sideways pattern. Gold stocks do not always respond to a rising gold price, it depends on other factors such as general market strength, interest rates, the US dollar, inflation and others. It remains to be seen if the stars align for a Xmas gold stock rally.

Until next week

Peter

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 15/12/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow indicator

xao 8th Dec 23

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 8/12/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow indicatorxso 8th Dec 23

I often say trading is not about being right, but sizing risk, exits and sticking to a method. However it is nice to get a call correct now and again. Last week I said...

"With the recent rally in the Russell the XSO is playing follow its leader. I suggest you keep a close eye on the Russell for it may well tell us if the spec end of the Aus market will finally rally. Or has it started with the 14 buy signals?"

This week I have posted 2 charts, the XAO and the XSO. I will start with the XAO - you can clearly the volume coming into the index which is a bullish sign, stocks can't go up without buyers. There is a slight bearish divergence between the MFI and the price, however it is slight and to be expected after a big rally.

Moving on to the spec end of the market and the XSO, well it did follow the Russell up but the price is still in a technical down trend, however the volumes look very bullish particularly the OBV which has been trending up for a while and has now broken the down trend line I have drawn. Volumes in this index look even stonger than the XAO.

This week was another strong performance in the 52 week closing high system with 11 alerts.

Have a great week

Peter

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 1/12/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow indicator

xao 1st Dec 23

Well, I like to say "keep a mind of interest" not judgement. It certainly was an interesting week. The XAO above looks strong and it appears that the bull market is becoming more broad based. I say that because below you can see fourteen, yes 14, new 52 week closing highs. Last week I mentioned gold and so let's look at the Aussie gold index the XGD.

XGD 1st Dec 23

The reason I use the money flow index is that it is a more dynamic (faster) indicator than the slow old OBV. You could see a break up about 6 weeks ago signalling perhaps (no indicator is completely right or wrong) something was afoot. What I see now is a lack of follow through comparing the MFI to the price. Also a bearish divergence on the OBV when comparing that indicator with the price. You can see I have drawn those lines on the chart. Therefore some consolidation or even a pullback in the XGD would not surprise me.

One more opinion this week and its about the Russel 2000 in the US compared to the Aus Small Ords (XSO).

There has been much gnashing of teeth as to why the mid caps and small end of the Aussie market have not responded to the recent rally, so here is my reasoning. The Russell in the US has not joined in the rally and its been lagging the SPX, Nasdaq and the DOW. But! the correlation between the Russell and the XSO is obvious.  Below is the chart of the Russell and the XSO

With the recent rally in the Russell the XSO is playing follow its leader. I suggest you keep a close eye on the Russell for it may well tell us if the spec end of the Aus market will finally rally. Or has it started with the 14 buy signals?

Until next week, Peter

 PS:  the Russel versus the XSO chart

Russell 2nd Dec 23

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 24/11/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow indicator

xao 24th nov 23

 What stood out to me about this chart was the OBV. After breaking up over its down trend line it has now retraced back to it. The Money Flow Index indicator looks very similar to last week. There were six 52 week closing highs this week in the ASX 500 - see below. Considering the index had a flat week, six alerts is promising showing there are stocks moving up even though  the broad based index may not be reflecting that. Bear in mind, and I repeat, the index is driven by resource stocks and banks, if they have a flat week then so does the index. I does not mean to say there are not opportunities in other areas.

 As I said in my video (link below if you have not seen it) the broad based rally appears elusive. I checked the Small Ords chart this morning (not shown here) and it is still struggling to show any conviction.  However there has been some good price action in some small resource stocks, perhaps because the XMJ is showing strength. I also mentioned in the video that the XMJ was looking very interesting and could help support and even rally the All Ords. Looking at the chart below you can see that is the case.

xmj 24th nov 23

 What will it take for gold shares to rally? Some had a strong week but others not. Last night in the US gold rose above 2000 yet the gold share indexes went "ho hum".  Look at the chart below. It shows the correlation in price between the gold price and the XGD, which is the gold share index in Australia. As you can see it normally correlates closely but recently it has not. now, whats happening? Well either the gold price is overbought or Aussie gold shares are oversold. If the sector decides to play catch up I think there is a quick 10% profit opportunity in the majors and perhaps a lot more in the juniors - so I am watching this space closely.

The other sector also dragging the chain versus its commodity price is uranium. Some of the Aussie uranium miners are not following the commodity price and it is possible that they also play the catch up game.

24th nov 23 gold v xgd

So that's all a bit to digest and if you find it overwhelming remember the Zen advice of observing and looking with a mind of interest, rather than trying to work it all out. By having a "mind of interest" and not trying to get it all right all the time takes the pressure off. This is a game of probability not right or wrong and your trading plan needs to reflect that philosophy.

I mentioned the video discussing the markets in more detail, its about 2 weeks old now but they are long term charts discussed and still relevant.

https://youtu.be/Y0H1hKc7WcM

Have a great week

Peter

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close on the 17/11/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow indicator

xao 17th Nov 23

 Well it was an interesting week for sure! Price continues to rise and the volumes look strong, in fact both the volume indicators are leading price - as you can see from the fact they are both breaking their down trend lines to the upside. Also there are 5 new 52 week closing highs this week, see below.

I notice some strength too in the lower end of the market, namely the Small Ords. Mind you it is still in a downtrend but volumes are increasing and it looks promising. Will we finally get a broad based rally? Too early to say but the bears have certainly been pushed back into their caves for the time being.

I have recorded a video discussing the markets in more detail, if you want a look click here.

 https://youtu.be/Y0H1hKc7WcM

Have a great week

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  10/11/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow indicator

XAO 10th Nov 23

Its been an interesting two weeks on the XAO. First of all we had the "perfect storm" of the US Fed not raising rates and higher commodity prices - the Aus market loved that combination. Then we had the RBA raise rates and commodity prices fell - the Aus market hated that combination and stock prices fell.

Last night in the US the Nasdaq again rose and dragged up the other indexes. The rally in the US is not yet broad based, for example the Nasdaq rose over 2% yet the Russell 2000 could only manage a little over 1%.

Here in Aus the trend is sideways to down - yet the MFI is showing some promise. I think we need a rally in commodity prices and other sectors to  to push this index up. Gold and gold shares remain uncertain, as does copper and oil. Its going to be an interesting week.

Until next week stay well.

Peter

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  4/11/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow indicator

spx 3rd Nov 2023

This week I have again decided to focus on the SP500 in the U.S.

I also think its worth repeating last weeks comments.

"You may get bored of me repeating the same thing - we live, trade and invest in the present, not the Armageddon of the future that many believe is inevitable. Keeping that philosophy in mind you can see that there is a strong trend line supporting the price. The OBV also has a trend line and if you look closely you can see a slight (but small) bullish divergence between price and OBV volume at the right edge of the chart.The more dynamic money flow is still trending down but is in over sold territory - the same it was during the Covid crash. It remains to be seen what happens to the above index, 4,000 points seems like a magnet and its not far away. In my opinion if it reaches that level the probability would be for a bounce, I notice some fundamental analysts are starting to call sectors of the market good value.These market corrections can be very difficult psychologically, something I wrote extensively about in my book The Zen Trader (link below). Have a good week and try and keep a mind of interest and observation, not one of panic and despair"

Well what a difference a week can make. After the Fed meeting in the US many now think interest rate rises have peaked there, also they have a strong labour market and inflation is falling. Sounds like Goldilocks economy stuff and the market responded accordingly.

Here in the land of OZ it got pretty good too. Of course we correlate with the US index but with commodity prices rising, banks following the US lead and the $A rising the XAO rallied hard. One could ask, what was all the worry about?

Of course there are still concerns Michelle Bullock and Australian Reserve Bank  board will raise interest rates on Tuesday - however it's impossible to predict (as was proven last week) so let's carry on and do our best. Doing our best is having some methodology and doing the best we can at sticking to it.

In saying that there are five 52 week closing highs in the All Ords this week and they are listed below.

All the best,

Peter

 

 

 

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of  27/10/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow indicator

spx 28th oct 2023

 This week I decided to focus on the SP500 in the U.S.

You may get bored of me repeating the same thing - we live, trade and invest in the present, not the Armageddon of the future that many believe is inevitable. Keeping that philosophy in mind you can see that there is a strong trend line supporting the price. The OBV also has a trend line and if you look closely you can see a slight (but small) bullish divergence between price and OBV volume at the right edge of the chart.

The more dynamic money flow is still trending down but is in over sold territory - the same it was during the Covid crash. It remains to be seen what happens to the above index, 4,000 points seems like a magnet and its not far away. In my opinion if it reaches that level the probability would be for a bounce, I notice some fundamental analysts are starting to call sectors of the market good value.

These market corrections can be very difficult psychologically, something I wrote extensively about in my book The Zen Trader (link below). Have a good week and try and keep a mind of interest and observation, not one of panic and despair.

All the best, Peter.

https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/products-and-services/e-books

 

 

 

 

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of  20/10/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and the Money Flow indicator

xao 23 Oct 23

I dont use many indicators on my chart except price and volume. As you can see price and volume are trending down so it looks quite bearish. The SP500 in the US does appear to have some short term support so it may help this index get a bounce. Despite the bearish mood here, there were two 52 week closing highs in the XAO and I have listed them below.

I need to mention too this chart was posted midday Monday 23rd, so the last bar on the chart shows Monday mornings price action - as I have live data.

 Please note the dates on the following comments, there is a big gap in the timeline as I took a break to complete and promote my book The Zen Trader.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 20/1/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 20th Jan 23

This is a very interesting chart. You can see I have included two volume indicators. The more dynamic Money Flow breaking a 2.5 year down trend line yet the more conservative OBV lagging a little (I think due to low holiday volumes).

Overall I think this is as positive as it gets, although some doubt remains about the global picture this chart is suggesting there are few problems in the Australian market. One would expect considering probability (do not expect anything) the above index to pause around the old highs of 7800 to 7900 or even reach 8000. At those levels the volume indicators will be at over bought areas, then depending on the global situation will push through or take a breather.

We just "don't know" at what levels the market will reach, pause or fall. What we do know is what is happening NOW. The index is up and there appears to be good breadth in this rally. If you want to learn more about market breadth I have posted a link below.

Until next week,

Regards

Peter

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/market_breadth.asp

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 13/1/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

xao 13th Jan 2023

"This  coming week will be the real test to see if the positivity continues. I think it will. That is not a prediction but a statement based on probability - by looking at the OBV indicator. It is rising and looking strong, a bullish sign"

Well that is what I said last week  - sometimes during the week when I get caught up in the noise (yes I still do that) I remind myself to go back and read what I wrote here. Often it is right! Of course trading is not about being right or wrong but having a method and managing risk, but we are all human and sometimes forget that simple equation.

So my comments this week? Looks like more of the same doesn't it? The mood seems to have flipped to bullish. I will show you one more chart. The eBook system I wrote back in 2016 has turned up. The graph below shows a test over 3 years (simulation only) and you can clearly see it was a terrible time to start the system just before Covid.

The point I am making here (more so than the result of the method) is that the equity is turning up - and the system is fully invested in the market holding no cash. I see that as a positive for this market in general.

Thanks for reading, Peter

eBook 3 years 13 Jan 2023

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 6/1/23: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

xao 6th jan 23

Happy New Year! The market recovery continues with volume support as well. However volume was low this week with reduced trading holiday hours. This  coming week will be the real test to see if the positivity continues. I think it will. That is not a prediction but a statement based on probability - by looking at the OBV indicator. It is rising and looking strong, a bullish sign.

Alerts listed below.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 16/12/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 16th Dec 22

It is still a waiting game on the XAO. Uncertainty is dominant. The resources sector is holding the XAO up at the moment, if that falls we will see a fall in the index.

Merry Xmas to you all.

Regards

Peter

 

I was away this weekend on a meditation retreat - with no internet service. So these updates were posted on Tuesday 13th and are valid for last weeks close of the 9/12/22.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 9/12/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 XAO 9th Dec 22

Not much change this week from last week, in that the XAO is trending up on a medium term time frame. We did get the pullback that I mentioned was possible (in last weeks post).  It's now a wait and see game at the moment. The volumes are looking good, however as we know concerns remain about interest rates and inflation.

Short and sweet comments this time -  as we wait to see how the markets react to announcements later this week (CPI and interest rates)

Have a good week.

Regards

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 2/12/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 2nd Dec 2022

The XAO powers on and up. Resource stocks driving the index, although a scroll through the Aussie indexes this week shows strength in other sectors too. A strong rebound in tech, banks going up, consumers index had a rebound and interestingly the energy sector falling. Is that a sign energy costs will fall? - if the market is selling off energy stocks.

Gold of course had a strong 2 weeks. As I write it's hovering around the 1800 mark. However the $US dollar looks oversold in the short term and if it rebounds it will put pressure on gold and gold stocks.

The markets have been on a tear since the rebound 6 weeks ago. On a daily chart the XAO is looking a little over bought - as can be seen on the chart below using the Money flow Index (10 period or 2 weeks) . Indicators are just that, indications. This price could tear on, however its an early warning sign (along with the $US) to think that it is unlikely for this mini bull to keep charging.

Until next week

Peter

XAO Daily Dec

52 week closing highs as of 2/12/22

A new 52 week high for this system is classified when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.

If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW  52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often given elsewhere.

The signals provided are  WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.

The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 7/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 7/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.

Of course the 7 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.

So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!

Entry:

Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)

The 7 ema to be above the 12ema

Exit:

if the 7 ema crosses below the 12 ema

The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and  taught to private clients or at my courses.

  Remember these scans are not using a Bull filter. The signals are for the simple 52 week CLOSING high entry and 7/12 EMA crossover exit system only.

 ASX 300

 BGL CMM GOR AIA

 ASX 300-500

 A4N ARX

 52 WEEK HIGHS for the eBook system: (That does use a Bull filter) If you are confused about the use of filters, I suggest you read well the comments about that above.  

 BGL CMM GOR AIA

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 18/11/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 XAO 18th Nov 22

 It would seem the chance of a wave 3 down is unlikely? If the OBV breaks above the overhead trend line it could be off to the races. Things have changed quickly, it is just another reminder to keep an open mind, not to be caught up in the thinking of the herd. A herd that reacts anxiously to every piece of news - thinking the worst.

The index has now "double topped" with its high 13 weeks a go. The OBV has a slight negative divergence between those 2 tops.

Also gold has paused but remains to be seen if it holds its levels or pulls back a little more.

Have a great week and good luck with your investing or trading.

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 11/11/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 11TH NOV 22

 Not a lot to say, just look at that chart and perhaps read what I wrote last week.

"Well, this is a significant situation we are now in......

The bull filter is now in positive territory.....

Of course the question is "is this just a bear market rally", for those of you that have been following for some years and have also read my book The Zen Trader will know the answer. Don't Know. So what is the course of action? If you are choosing to play the game of trading the answer is, 1/ invest an amount you are comfortable with 2/ make sure you know your exit"

I will mention the gold rally, gold is difficult to trade, it does things like it did this week, explode into a rally. You really have to be in the gold market BEFORE it does that or act very quickly. Gold can also have quick and hard pullbacks. Many gold stocks are now extended well above their mean average moving averages, a pull back would not surprise. If that happens I would be buying or adding to gold stocks - favouring the ones with the strongest fundamentals.

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 4/11/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 xao 4th Nov 2022

ebook system 2 years

Well, this is a significant situation we are now in. I have posted 2 charts above, one of he XAO and the bull filter for the eBook system and the other chart showing the performance of the system over the last 2 years. You can clearly see it has been in a pullback phase and is about 50% in cash.

The bull filter is now in positive territory and there are 9 buy signals in the ASX 300 this week, they are posted below but here they are again ARN CRN DBI IAG KAR LOV PWH QAN SYR.

Of course the question is "is this just a bear market rally", for those of you that have been following for some years and have also read my book The Zen Trader will know the answer. Don't Know. So what is the course of action? If you are choosing to play the game of trading the answer is, 1/ invest an amount you are comfortable with 2/ make sure you know your exit.

Last week I posted a chart of the eBook system trading only stocks with set fundamental criteria. In this current market the growth stocks are giving way to stocks that have better fundamentals, as investors concern themselves about companies just surviving - not the sometimes false promise of thriving. Of course we want both! - but the emphasis has shifted to the former in these cautious times.

See you next week

Peter

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 28/10/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 28th Oct 22

It was looking dire last week as the OBV trend line was broken, and the index has some work to do. It needs to break the over head down trend line, and volume needs to show more strength in my opinion. The bull filter from the eBook system has not yet triggered but gee -  it was close.

Some of my shorter term weekly systems (with quicker bull filters) have signaled to buy. Also stock lists with good fundamentals are out-performing the market. So it's not all doom and gloom, is it? Is the world panicking again? Do we have a similar situation when Covid hit - or are things more serious? Most would probably say it is more serious - too many headwinds. However, there are opportunities in this market - this Australian market, which is performing much better than OS markets.

Below: the original eBook system (on the products and services page of this site) on a group of fundamental stocks the last 2 years!

eBook on Skinner fun

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 14/10/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 14TH OCT 22

Apologies I missed updating the alerts last week. For your information there was one just alert for the ASX 300 last week and it was KAR.

The XAO is showing amazing resilience compared to OS markets. I read a great article last week (unfortunately I cant find it) explaining that it was the resources sector holding up the Aus market. However the general trend is still down and as I mentioned some weeks ago if that OBV line on the chart above breaks to the downside it will be an ominous sign. The target line of wave 3 down may will be reached.

If you are mostly out of the market its a good time to do some more study, review, work on your mindset and prepare for better times.

Until next week

Peter

  MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 30/9/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 xao 30th sept 22

The XAO continues to look to breach that OBV line. Markets world wide had a small bounce on the news of the Bank of England buying bonds. Is it a pivot? The pivot theory has been touted for a while - that the Fed will not persevere inflicting pain upon the markets. Well, if you have read my book and the chapter "Don't Know", you will realise that attempting to know is a waste of time.

In the meantime I hope you have a system, are sticking to it to the best of your ability or are out of the market. Let's see what happens this week!

To get more regular comments about the markets I am posting often on twitter, here is my link

The Zen Trader@PeterCa49537151
 

Until next week

Peter

 

52 week closing highs as of 30/9/22

A new 52 week high for this system is classified when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.

If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW  52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often given elsewhere.

The signals provided are  WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.

The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 7/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 7/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.

Of course the 7 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.

So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!

Entry:

Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)

The 7 ema to be above the 12ema

Exit:

if the 7 ema crosses below the 12 ema

The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and  taught to private clients or at my courses.

  Remember these scans are not using a Bull filter. The signals are for the simple 52 week CLOSING high entry and 7/12 EMA crossover exit system only.

 ASX 300

 NONE THIS WEEK

 ASX 300-500

 NONE THIS WEEK

 52 WEEK HIGHS for the eBook system: (That does use a Bull filter) If you are confused about the use of filters, I suggest you read well the comments about that above.  

 None this week. The Bull filter is negative.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 23/9/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 23rd Sept 22

As I mentioned last week I regard the OBV volume lines the ones to watch. At my talk in Adelaide on Wednesday 21st I discussed the ability of some stocks to make 52 week closing highs, a good example of that is the stock IGO, making a 52 week closing amidst a strongly down trending market. 

At that talk I discussed the possibility of a wave 3 down to around the 6000 level. I did notice in the audience -  a few shaking of heads and disbelief. One of the most important things whilst trading or investing is to keep an open mind. One analysts view is just that - one view. Anything can happen in the markets and we really should attempt to embrace all possibilities.

It looks like Monday will be another big down day, after the US markets falling hard on Friday night.

Until next week

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 16/9/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 16th sep 22

The chart above shows a few possible targets for this down trending market - despite many stocks making new 52 week closing highs (see below) the major index is slipping. You can see the fib retracement, not something I normally use but many do, so it may be worth considering. Also a blue dotted line for the Elliot wave fans, is that the 3rd red wave down level? - could be,  notice it is around the same level as the Fib 61.8%.

I personally think that OBV line is the one to watch, if that up trend in volume breaks down it will be a negative sign.

I will be discussing this chart and many others at my talk in Adelaide on Wednesday 21st Sept. Hope to see you there!

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 9/9/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, MFI 13, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 9th Sept 22

One of the things I talk about in the book The Zen Trader is the ability to look at the market (and your trades) with a mind of interest, not worry, judgement, stress etc. Looking at the chart above with that state of mind, can you see how fascinating it really is? Despite all the doom and gloom, in this present moment (which is all we really have) the XAO is showing some strength - particularly the volume indicators.

Another testamant to the stength of certain parts of the market are the 52 week closing highs, listed below. Trading and investing is a combination of taking measured risk, detaching from outcome and staying present. Of course things can change very quickly - a reason most traders use stop loss orders or targets.

The eBook system (written and published in 2016) is still performing, although not as well as it has. This is something I will be discussing (along with suggested improvements) at my upcoming presentation at the Adelaide branch of the ATAA. Below is  a link for you to read more about the content of the presentation. Hope to see you there.

Until next week

Peter

 https://ataa.asn.au/events/next-events/adelaide-chapter/adelaide-chapter-in-person-meeting-september-2022

52 week closing highs as of 9/9/22

A new 52 week high for this system is classified when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.

If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW  52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often given elsewhere.

The signals provided are  WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.

The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 7/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 7/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.

Of course the 7 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.

So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!

Entry:

Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)

The 7 ema to be above the 12ema

Exit:

if the 7 ema crosses below the 12 ema

The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and  taught to private clients or at my courses.

  Remember these scans are not using a Bull filter. The signals are for the simple 52 week CLOSING high entry and 7/12 EMA crossover exit system only.

 ASX 300

 AKE CXO LOV MIN PLS WTC

 ASX 300-500

 MYR PPC STA

 52 WEEK HIGHS for the eBook system: (That does use a Bull filter) If you are confused about the use of filters, I suggest you read well the comments about that above.  

 None this week. The Bull filter is negative.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 2/9/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 XAO 2nd Sept 22

I hope there are not too many lines and indicators on the chart above. I have never been one for too many indicators, however this week I have added the Money Flow Index (13 period - one calendar quarter) in an attempt to gauge how strong or weak this market is. The MFI can give a different and alternate guide to the flow of volume in the market. As we know "volume is the steam that makes the choo choo go" (Joseph Granville).

What I find most interesting is the medium term (2 years) downtrend of the MFI indicating volume was losing steam. It would seem a level to watch is the lower trend line, which signaled a healthy bullish divergence between Dec 22 and July 22, that bullish MFI signal preceded the rally we had the following 9 weeks which ended just recently.

The Bull filter for the eBook system is below the 12 EMA, so for that system it is stand aside, do not buy, monitor existing trades. 

I read an interesting article recently about down waves in bear markets. The premise was that there are 3 waves (Elliot wave fans will be nodding) down. The main point was  - that historically the 3rd wave was double the 1st or 2nd wave. Looking at the chart below you can see we had around 10% falls in both the 1st and 2nd wave, before the recent 9 week rally. If we are to then have a 20% fall it would bring the market down to around the 5900 level. There is a lot of longer term support at 5900 drawn with the dotted - again, seen on the chart below.

As I have often said here, I am not one for predictions however we need to keep in mind possibilities. You can see from the Covid falls in early 2020 how quickly the market can change and the overall mood is very bearish at the moment. I personally think the Australian market is in a stronger position that the U.S. and the falls here may not be as severe, but who knows!

Be prepared for crisis AND opportunity.

Peter.

XAO support 2ndSept 22

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 26/8/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

xao 26th august 22

I don't have a lot to say about the chart above this week. That is because on Friday the US market closed significantly down on indication the Fed have no intention of slowing interest rate rises. Our market closed up on Friday looking strong, however we all know global markets follow the US lead and it is hard to see how the XAO will not be affected in a negative way this week.

In saying that there are alerts this week with some stocks exceptional strength. As usual they are listed below. I will save more comments until next week.

Regards

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 19/8/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 xao19th Aug 22

We now have a slight positive divergence between price and the OBV (as opposed to the negative divergence we had in May) . This divergence IS NOT a predictive tool, however it suggests the strength of volume in this recent rally. It would be quite a feat for the highs around 7800 to be reached or taken higher. I have noticed how strong the XAO index is compared to the US Indexes (namely the Nasdaq). That is because we are not a tech economy but of course a resource one. Stellar results like the one from BHP this week certainly help the XAO.

Historically September is the weakest month of the year as can be seen on the chart below of the 67 years between 1950 to 2017. In my opinion Covid has altered some cycles and cycles do not repeat with accuracy all the time. However considering the recent rally it is a consideration. The good news is after the September pullback the markets rallies into Xmas.

stock market months

Until next week

Peter

      

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 12/8/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 12th Aug 22

Well, it's still going up. Despite the fears of a China collapse, inflation, interest rates, property collapse etc....the market is climbing the wall of worry. The small caps are ON FIRE. I am not sure what to make of that but if you are trading that sector you should have had a good week.

As you can see the chart above is bullish - what's going to stop the party? Maybe the cyclical factor. Late August and September is historically a weak time, but since Covid, cycles seem to be changing or being ignored.

I know one cycle that is working, the rally of gold stocks between August and December, it could be "hang on to your hat" time.

Until next week, alerts below

Peter

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 5/8/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 XAO 5TH AUGUST 22

Strength. I suppose that is how you could describe the chart above. Very impressive breakout of the overhead down trend line of the OBV. Also the weekly closing price has stuck its head above the resistance line - but that is only  a line I drew on the chart, resistance could be anywhere around that area. The daily chart (not posted) does look over bought. Remember the chart above is the Bull Filter for the eBook system, we are not attempting to time the market for a daily system, unless of course you have a daily system with a shorter time frame.

The other comment I will make is the gold sector, it finally rallied after a long and testing down trend. See chart below and more comments below that.

Gold XGD 5th Aug 22

I posted this chart on twitter a week or two ago, noting the divergence between price and volume, a rally was probable with extreme divergence as above. If you want to follow me on twitter just search The Zen Trader. The price has closed above the weekly downtrend line, however, like the XAO the gold price is hitting resistance and could pullback or consolidate. Who knows! Its so difficult to predict - that is why you need a method to follow and then monitor the system -  and of course YOURSELF.

Until next week

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 29/7/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 XAO 29th July 22

 Well the big news this week is the eBook system has triggered a buy, see alerts for the stocks below. You can see clearly the XAO is well above the Bull filter 12 EMA. If your following a method like that, monday is buy time. It is never easy psychologically is it? Looking at the chart above the XAO is sitting on resistance and one would expect  a pullback.

Is this a bear market rally, is it the start of a new bull market? Maybe. Normally new bull markets are not in the same stocks and sectors of the last bull market. Where will this one be?

Next week I will do a sector break down to see what we can find. Until then stay well.

Peter

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 22/7/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 xao 22nd july22

 The XAO looking better isn't it? Apologies for skipping last week. About a month ago I had serious car accident and then followed it up with catching Covid. Perhaps a weakened immune system response from the trauma/stress. Anyway it was good to have a break and have the chance to plan some changes. I am often telling others to stop, think, re-assess etc., and after the last few weeks I can highly recommend it!

We are not out of the woods yet, but do you feel like the mood is changing? Are people accepting the financial changes thrust upon them? Is there a feeling things are not really that bad so lets get on with it?

I think so. I said to some colleagues a few weeks ago  I thought the mood was worse than the technicals but the mood could be changing. For example company reports coming out of the US are not as negative as feared.

Looking at that chart above the ideal scenario is for it to pull back a little, consolidate and then move up again, or at least churn sideways until the economy   recovers. Some short term systems are signalling re-entry into the market. Not yet though the medium term eBook system.

Peter

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 8/7/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a

12 EMA.

XAO 8th July 22

 

Is that a better week? Yes, it went up, but on low volume. Nothing to do but wait and watch as far as the eBook system goes. The bull filter is still negative but there are 3 alerts in the 52 week closing system that does not use a bull filter. Amazing how there is often a stock breaking new long term highs even in this market. Short and sweet this week, I have a dose of the big C.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 1/7/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

xao 1st july 22

It was a bearish week this one, the index went up early in the week but closed down. With a week like that one nothing to do but wait and see what this week produces. Cash is a good option at the moment with so much uncertainty around.

Gold stocks were sold off a gain with the gold price falling. Interestingly gold is down around 11% from its high of 2,000 yet gold stocks are down 50%. Now THAT is an anomaly and something has got to give. Either gold goes a lot lower or gold stocks rally.

Till next week

Peter

 

   MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 24/6/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 26th June 22

 

I said 2 weeks ago we could fall another 25%. The market fell nearly 10% since then - breaking decisively through the upper support line on the chart above. That line now becomes a resistance line if we get a rally, at it seems we may. Is Australia in a bear market? What determines a bear market? Lower lows on the chart? However where do we pick the lows? Was that just one huge move up from the covid low of March 2020? If so, is that the last low? Is a bear market a 20% fall from previous highs? If so it needs to fall below 6200 so we can use that measurement. It isn't there - yet. Will it get there - "don't know". There is a chapter on the Zen and trading philosophy of "don't know" in my book the Zen Trader.

 https://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/products-and-services/e-books/zen-trader

Why hasn't the OBV fallen? Is that a useful indicator? It's all enough to drive you crazy. The answer? Have a method and stick to it.

I went back into the market with a shorter term system about a month ago, nearly all stocks have been stopped. I use conditional sell orders placed in the market. I don't have to think about selling, it happens for me if the price is hit. It's not a perfect method, nothing is.

I often talk about Gold, well here is an interesting chart.

 XGD 26th June

 A monthly chart can show the beginning of major moves. This sector looks oversold to me. The gold shares often have a seasonal rally between July and Oct, I keep watching this space with interest.

Until next week!

Peter

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 10/6/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 10th june 22

 Well it is just getting more interesting. You may not agree with that statement if you are experiencing losses. What I see as most interesting is the divergence between price and volume. Price is falling and is hovering on old support levels yet the OBV is not falling and stays within its medium term trend line.

However I was studying the charts of the US market and its quite possible those indexes fall another 25%. If that happens we wont avoid the carnage. For example look at that fall in March 2020, if the mood of the market gets really negative that could happen again and around 5000 to 5500 points is where I see major support.

Something very big happened on Friday night in the US. The gold price bucked the trend against the rising US dollar - supporting the gold sector there, whilst other sectors fell. Look at that daily bar on the chart BELOW (apologies for size ) in the US gold stock index the XAU. Expect a similar performance here on Tuesday in the XGD.  Normally the gold price falls with a rising dollar but perhaps some have decided "enough is enough" and money is moving to the perceived safety and opportunity of gold and gold stocks?

Anyway, see you next week, alerts below, Peter

xau Jun 22

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 3/6/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

xao 3rd June 22

 That is a very big and impressive volume bar of this last weeks trading. The Australian market is certainly resilient. When comparing this market to most of the other major markets globally - I think we should be very grateful for our lot here in the land of down under. Although the bull filter in this system has not triggered, some of my shorter term systems have and I have re-entered the market with one of those. Why?

Well for these reasons: I have been short term and day trading, however I have some work I want to do on my house and it will be easier for me to run a weekly system whilst I focus on painting and gardening. How boring you may think but I am looking fwd to the change. Also the system has a tight exit so if this market reverses down I will be out quickly.

I am also currently working on writing Mindful Trading version 2, a recap of the systems performance and some suggested improvements.

I notice the Australian gold sector had a strong week. See the chart below. This is one of my favourite sectors and I will keep you posted as to what I think is happening with it. Commodity stocks to seem to be one of the strongest sectors in our market.

gold sector 3rd June 22

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 27/5/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 XAO 27TH MAY 22

 The XAO had a pretty good week, no falls and a slight rise. Of course most will know the US markets rallied on the Friday there, setting us up for a rally here in Aus.

The thing to wait for now is if the Bull filter kicks in for the medium term trend trading systems. Some of my short term trending systems have already signalled to buy. It will be an interesting week.

Peter

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 20/5/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

xao 20th May 22

 The interesting  chart of the XAO looks very similar to last weeks chart - just the price is a little higher. Despite more falls on the US markets the XAO maintained its relatively strong position. As often mentioned here in these comments, that is because we are a resource heavy index and it is certainly helping at the moment.

The next chart is perhaps even more interesting.

XGD 20th May 22

Look at that On Balance Volume support. It's a classic breakout of a rising wedge, then a retest of support. The Aussie gold index has been sold off from the general market selloff AND a falling gold price. However, the US dollar has started to fall from a seemingly overbought position - creating a bounce in the gold price and gold stocks.

I think this is the sector to watch now. It seems prime for a rally in my opinion.

See you next week!

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 13/5/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

Apologies, I was away on a meditation  retreat and did not post alerts for the week ending 6th May 2022

 xao 13th may 22

Well that is an interesting chart! The OBV is sitting right on the 3 year trend line. Normally when the index sits on a long term OBV trend line it finds support.

A fortnight ago I discussed the Nasdaq and how it looked oversold (scroll down for those comments).  The chart below shows the price falling to the 50% Fib retracement and then bouncing up. Very positive sign. It should be a good start to the week commencing 16th May 22.

Alerts for this week below.

nasdaq 13th may 22

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  the close 29/4/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 xao 29th april

 Even though the chart above shows the bull filter negative (as I have live data and am writing this midday Tuesday 3rd May) ) last weeks close left it positive, so there are 2 alerts for the eBook system this week. However, uncertainty and a bearish sentiment remain. Even the gold price and the gold sector has sold off, however IMO it is at a great buy point and could rebound strongly at any time.

I have posted below a chart of the Nasdaq. More comments below that chart. 

nasdaq 29th april

The Nasdaq has been dragging down the market, it was the leader before so that is understandable. It seems to drag down the Crypto market too - although that is another path we won't go down here today. The dominant sector in the US is technology, in Australia it is banks and commodities.  When the indexes from the US fall it has a negative impact on almost everything, people also sell everything (eg: gold and commodities) to raise cash. 

So, for things to turn positive again we either need a big rotation back into the SP500 and the Dow, or for the Nasdaq to recover. Looking at the chart above we now have some positive divergence between volume and price. The opposite to the negative divergence we had in late 2021. The chart is a weekly scale and the volume filter is the 13 period CMF.

Also! the price is now at a 38% Fib retracement - calculated from the 2020 April low to the Dec 2021 high. Here it is in the chart below. Now - I am not really a fan of Fib retracements - but many are - and many traders look for support and divergences like we have in the other Nasdaq chart. A bounce here, IMO, is probable. Particularly in commodities as they are the strongest sector.

See you next week, it should be an interesting one. Alerts below.

nasdaq 2 29th april

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of  22/4/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

xao 22nd April 22

Last week I wrote: "The Bull market continues. I did have a short on the XAO and it was stopped out this week. The loss was compensated with big profits from the Gold sector, arguably the strongest one at the moment. You will notice lower volume this week as traders reduce exposure before the Easter break and perhaps some caution as the Sell in May fear takes hold. Of course it was only a 4 day trading week - as next week will also be. Lower volume is to be expected"

Well what a week as the volatility continues. I lightened up my portfolio during the week as I did not like the look of the price action amongst the gold sector. I also put back on my short on the XAO. Most will know the US markets fell hard in the last session for their week so expect the XAO to follow on Tuesday - as Monday is Anzac Day and our market is closed out of respect.

The Sell in May could be upon us as the world continues to digest concerning news about war, inflation, interest rates and the like.

I was surprised to see nine alerts in the 52 week closing high system this week. Its been a resilient system, except for the covid crash when it suffered a  big draw down. Below is a 3 year back test of the system (using adjusted data for survivorship bias.)

In my new book The Zen Trader I discuss a similar system with a different exit to reduce volatility, I hope you check it out here

https://harriman.house/books/the-zen-trader/

See you next week.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of Easter 14/4/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 XAO 14TH APRIL 22

The Bull market continues. I did have a short on the XAO and it was stopped out this week. The loss was compensated with big profits from the Gold sector, arguably the strongest one at the moment. You will notice lower volume this week as traders reduce exposure before the Easter break and perhaps some caution as the Sell in May fear takes hold. Of course it was only a 4 day trading week - as next week will also be. Lower volume is to be expected.

The OBV indicator is looking supportive of the recent price movements.

Happy Easter and I hope you all have a wonderful break. Here on the NSW Central Coast the weather is fantastic, good to get a break from all the heavy rain.

Until next week

Peter.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/4/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 XAO 8TH APRIL 2022

I said in last weeks comments it was probable the market would pause or retrace - this trading week the XAO index fell slightly into the weeks close but remains above the Bull filter. Less alerts this week which is understandable, as during the last few weeks there have been many buy signals - also caution perhaps is a factor from some, after the strong recovery rally of the last 4 weeks.

The gold index continues to be strong. I notice last week the rare earths sector took a breather, however this week may be another strong one with the gold price rallying on Friday night in OS trade. I mention this because those 2 sectors really have been motoring along and are producing some of the most profitable trades in the systems.

Now that my book is finally finished I can focus back on the website and providing more products and services. I also intend to start writing more newsletters. So! keep an eye out for that.

Until next week

Peter

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of 1/4/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

 XAO 1ST APRIL 22

So it seems the bull filter from the eBook system made a good call. I said a few weeks ago one of the hardest things about trading ANY system is following the rules. Why? well often we just do not believe what the market is doing! How can it be rallying amongst all the uncertainty and doom and gloom? Markets (people) continually do the unpredictable - a reason why attempting to predict is pointless.

Solution? Have a method based on probability and then do your best to follow it.

From a technical perspective one would expect some resistance soon, as the index (XAO) attempts to break past those 2 previous highs in Jan 2022 and Aug 2021. My opinion is it will depend on overseas events and markets. If the global recovery rally continues then I suppose we will follow. I say that because based on past performance (probability) that is what happens.

The Australian stock market is in a commodity demand fueled rally. The last time I saw that sector so strong was the 2003 - 2008 period. Huge gains were made in the commodity stocks as momentum for those stocks outperformed others. Be careful though, when this sector reverses it does so with speed. You need a few different exit strategies to preserve profits. More on this to come.

See you next week, Peter

 

xao 25th March 2020

 The XAO continues to rally. I heard on the news a few days ago - for the last 8 weeks the XAO was the second best performing index amongst the majors, only behind Japan. The index is certainly moving away from those support lines on the chart above. The index is moving into resistance so a pause may be probable. One would think a pause is probable! However as the markets continually show we just don't know what will happen no matter how hard we try to predict.

Alerts below for this week.

Have a good week and stay mentally and physically healthy.

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 18/3/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 18TH mAR 2022

 

Well what a difference a week can make. This week the eBook system (that uses a Bull filter) triggered 15 buy alerts (see below). These were stocks hovering around the 52 week closing highs and waiting for the XAO index to give a Bull signal. The OBV line has moved up breaking through the initial down sloping trend line. The question of course is -is this a bear market rally or the start of the cyclical rally into May?

It’s always emotionally difficult to commit to a system that has been out of the market for some time and then suddenly triggers a lot of buy signals. Last week I mentioned the Nasdaq 100 (see chart below from last week) and the possibility it may fall to 12,500. The index has rallied since and  as I write (Midday 21/3/22) sitting around 14,350.

My thoughts and feelings are I am not convinced this correction is over, so as always we will just have to wait and see what happens.

See you next week, Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 11/3/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 11TH MARCH 2022

 This week: the market is still falling, although at a slower speed. The trend of gold and some resource stocks dominating the market continues, as can be seen from the closing 52 week highs listed below.

I have a target on the Nasdaq 100 (see chart below) at 12,500. It is the 61.8% retracement level, taken from the high after the extended rally from the indexes all time high in Feb 2020. I think at that level we will start to see strong positive divergences on price and volume indicators, if the market is to stop falling and recover that level MAY be the point. 12,500 points is still another 800 points or around 6%. We might not fall that far or it might be a one day spike down, who knows, I just think it's a level to watch.

If the Nasdaq falls to that level of 12500 the probability is that the XAO will come under pressure, taking it below or around 7000, smack in the middle of the support lines on its chart. Looking again at he XAO the OBV is still looking weak, the 12 EMA is trending down. The only positive is that volumes are high (on both charts) indicating that the sellers may be getting exhausted. We probably need one more big plunge down to eliminate all the sellers so that there are none left, allowing the pendulum of bulls and bears to swing back to the bulls.

Have a good week and see next week, thanks for reading.

 

Nasdaq 11th March 22

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 4/3/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator, a bar chart and a 12 EMA.

XAO 4TH March 22

This week I think it's worth repeating what I said last week, here it is:

A few weeks ago I thought the levels between 7000 and 7200 would be a support area, however looking now with the continual bearish sentiment and chart above, it seems lower levels of 6800 to 7000 look more feasible. 

The OBV could fall down to its longer term trend line and the index price to 6800. I would think that would be a good support area but it all depends on overseas events. I heard on the news this morning Putin is now rattling the sabre sword of nuclear weapons, so of course that will not help sentiment. Coming back to the Australian market there are still stocks making new closing 52 week highs, most of these still being in the resilient sectors of banks, mining and real estate, one wonders how long this can last with the current mood.

This week: the performance of SOME stocks in the market continues. Gold stocks are performing well along with the rising gold price, also coal stocks had a huge rally triggering 52 week closing highs in WHC and YAL. The other stocks to trigger were 2 gold stocks (PRU and WGX) and an oil stock (STO).

The chart above of the XAO is very resilient, being held up by resource stocks and the $A. Australia is a resource based economy devoid of many of the sexy industries (Tech for example) but in times like this it can outperform many other global indexes. We are seen as a safe haven. The chart above is looking like it wants to consolidate. I don't see the volumes and healthy technical divergences happening just yet, however they may not be far away - depending on OS events of course.

There is another consideration too. We are now in the cyclical time of the year when stocks often start to falter and decline with the oncoming mentality "Sell in May and go away". However who knows about that one! Shorter term cycles have gone completely out the window the last 2 years. I think we still need to be mindful of the great uncertainty that exists and as we know markets HATE uncertainty and until some of that uncertainty subsides I expect markets to remain volatile.

Have a good week.

Peter

 

 

 NONE. The bull filter is negative

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 25/2/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and a simple line chart.

 XAO 25TH FEB 2022

Let's keep things simple amongst the noise. There certainly is plenty of noise and worry at the moment. The market is down trending, no doubt about it, the question is where is the support? When I say support I mean technical support, for keep in mind technical support areas will be breached if external economic conditions worsen.

A few weeks ago I thought the levels between 7000 and 7200 would be a support area, however looking now with the continual bearish sentiment and chart above, it seems lower levels of 6800 to 7000 look more feasible. 

The OBV could fall down to its longer term trend line and the index price to 6800. I would think that would be a good support area but it all depends on overseas events. I heard on the news this morning Putin is now rattling the sabre sword of nuclear weapons, so of course that will not help sentiment. Coming back to the Australian market there are still stocks making new closing 52 week highs, most of these still being in the resilient sectors of banks, mining and real estate, one wonders how long this can last with the current mood.

See you next week.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 18/2/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and a 12 EMA

xao 18th Feb 2022

We have an interesting market. Its being held up (IMO) by the banks, miners and now property and education stocks, all in the hope the Aus economy is getting back into "normal". However the US markets are feeling the sell off in Tech, dragging down other indexes. I find it difficult to see us not following the bearish sentiment. Gold stocks had a good week, I notice some profit taking (me included) on Friday. The US gold index XAU had a small retracement last night.

The chart above still looks bearish. The trend line is pointing down, the OBV is too. There are no positive divergences. Interestingly though, we did have quite a few new closing 12 month highs, (see alerts below) a reflection of what I said in the above paragraph. Other sectors though are dragging down the index.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 11/2/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and a 12 EMA

XAO 11TH fEB 2022

 

The above is a live chart posted Tuesday 15th. The market has had 2 up weeks but indicators are still pointing down. I mentioned recently about gold, the price has rallied but the stocks are not really performing that well - not as well as I would have thought anyway. Going back to the chart above, if the OBV trend line breaks down then it will be a bearish sign, however I think the market is actually holding up quite well considering all the doom and gloom. Commodities are strong and the Aussie market can outperform the US market when that is the case.

Over the last 2 years the US market has outperformed the Aussie market but now with commodities rising our index that is heavy with big resource stocks may hold up well. The banks will play a part too if the housing boom continues (as is predicted by some cycle theorists) .

PS: My blood test revealed no Covid or anything else so the mystery continues. Or maybe its just the Flu! (what is that) Thank you for all your kind messages, much appreciated, and I hope there are less errors in this weeks post.

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 4/2/22: See charts below with an On Balance Volume indicator and a 12 EMA

XAO 4TH FEB 22

Apologies for not posting for a couple of weeks. I have been quite ill with a mystery flu that has not shown up as Covid with two PCR tests, so some more testing results (blood) coming this week. Anyway, despite the "don't know" factor I am getting better, so that's the main thing. We dont always need to know do we? :)

The chart above still looks bearish to me, despite the bounce we have had. The moving average is pointing down and so is the volume indicator. The bull filter is bearish and if you are trading the eBook system then you will not be buying. A good sign would be for the OBV line to start showing some strength or support, which it is not. This market could fall more so unless you are a short term trader looking to take quick profits in a volatile market (many are) its probably best to stand aside and wait for the dust to settle.

I personally have  a few trades on in the resources sector, particularly gold. The gold chart looks bullish to me but of course that can change at any time. I have been stopped out of all my crypto trades and am waiting to re-enter on a resumed up trend. I am watching Harmony and Polygon closely.

So I have been busy writing a book and it has taken a lot longer than I thought! I was warned this would be the case by a few colleagues. Anyway the publish date is not far away and if you want a sneek preview here is a link. Its been published and promoted by an English company, that explains the pricing in Pounds. Until next week, Peter

https://harriman.house/books/the-zen-trader/ 

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 14/1/22: See charts below

 xao 14thJan 22

I have been talking baout this down trend in volume for a few weeks now. I was giving it the benefit of doubt considering the holidays and the normal low volume this time of year. However it is persisting and look ominous. There has been for a few months now, which is also persisting - the shift away from Tech into more traditional (value) stocks. I think the XAO index is being held up by the likes of BHP and other commodity related stocks. Yesterday I scanned a shorting system I have and it surprised me how many stocks in the ASX 300 were down trending.

Time to be cautious.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 7/1/22: See charts below

The chart below has a 12 EMA and the On Balance Volume (OBV)

 xao 7th jan 22

 

Welcome to the new year. Apologies for not posting last week. As I said a few weeks ago it is very difficult to analyse the Xmas period because of the reduced volume. It probably explains the OBV looking weak. The XAO has actually made an all time high, time will tell if it can continue on up. Commodities are certainly strong and Gold continues to play silly buggers. Alerts are below.

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 24/12/21: See charts below

The chart below has a 12 EMA and the On Balance Volume (OBV)

 xao 24th dec 21

 

Its difficult to do much volume analysis this time of year. We have 2 trading weeks of only 3 days trading, so volumes will be low because of that and the fact it is holiday time.

However, do not go alseep at the trading wheel! Some good opportunities can exist. Often gold has a rally over Christmas. In fact last year I watched a fascinating doco about gold and astrology, with some convincing evidence, see the link below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ByowJSCvt0A

If you watched it then its is another example how we need to keep an open mind.

So, the bull filter is active and the market continues to defy gravity. 20,000 Nasdaq here we come ? Many alerts this week, see below.

:)

Merry Xmas to you all.

Peter

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 10/12/21: See charts below

The chart below has a 12 EMA and the On Balance Volume (OBV)

xao 10th Dec 21

The XAO gets a bounce on the back of a US led recovery plus strong commodity prices. Perhaps too that the RBA will not cut rates so supporting the A$. The closing price pokes it head above the 12 EMA providing a buy signal for the eBook system - producing two buy signal in the ASX 300 (see below).

Volume support still warns of a negative divergence. The jury is still out - deciding the verdict of where this market is heading. Is it consolidating or rolling over for a bigger correction? Of course no one knows so all we can do is trade our method and do our best to stay calm. See alerts below.

Peter

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 3/12/21: See charts below

The chart below has a 12 EMA and the On Balance Volume (OBV)

 xao 3rd Dec 21

Now its looking more bearish than last week, and as we know the US markets had another fall on Firday night. The OBV is pointing down and it is leading the price. I suppose from a technical perspective we may get support at the old highs around 7400. However, as we know the XAO just follows the SP500 and if that index decides to fall more - so will the XAO.

I have been talking a lot about setting conditional sell orders in the market, instead of an EMA cross over, as that exit is too slow in these dynamic markets we have. Let's hope this is not the start of a meltdown but a healthy correction. Only time will tell.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 26/11/21: See charts below

The chart below has a 12 EMA and the On Balance Volume (OBV)

 

xao 26th Nov 21

Not looking great is it? The OBV trendline has broken down. We know the US had a big sell off on Friday night due to new covid fears. The bull filter has turned negative . One of the few sectors holding up is resources, particularly gold. Let's see what this week brings.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 19/11/21: See charts below

The chart below has a 12 EMA and three volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) the Money Flow Index (13 period) and weekly volume bars.

 xao19th nov 21

This week I have added a 13 period money flow indicator. It appears to be double bottoming and is at the lower part of its range.

It may bounce up. However we know the markets appear to be at an inflection point. Will the Nasdaq continue the rally, will there be a big rotation because of inflation fears, will it fall as fears take hold? The bull market is active and there are new buy signals this week. It's our mind that creates all these concerns - normally more than what the market deserves.

Scroll below for the signals, which are notably mainly resource stocks.

 

The signals below are so you can follow trades that make NEW 52 week highs for the 52 week high system.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 12/11/21: See charts below

The chart below has a 12 EMA and two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) the weekly volume bars.

xao 12th nov 21

The Bull filter is again active. I said last week the US had a big rally in gold so expect fireworks in that sector. We certainly had that this week and there are a few gold stocks making 52 week highs this week. What normally happens now is the smaller gold stocks rally hard. If you are looking for opportunities in this market that could be the place to investigate.

Thank you for those that attended the ATAA on Thursday night.

Have a great weekend. Signals below.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 5/11/21: See charts below

The chart below has a 12 EMA and two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) the weekly volume bars.

xao 5th Nov 21

This market keeps on keeping on. So keep an eye out for my newsletter and upcoming ATAA seminar on Thursday 11th Nov.

The Bull filter is again active. I notice last night (this is written Sat morning the 6th) in the US a big rally in gold so expect fireworks in that sector Monday. I will expand more on my thoughts about the market during my seminar on Thursday. Its free for ATAA members and $15 for members.

Have a great weekend. Signals below.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 29/10/21: See charts below (updates and comments for the week of 22/10/21 were not published)

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) the weekly volume bars. It also has a 12 EMA.

XAO 30th Oct 21

 Apologies for missing the alerts last week.

We are always looking for some kind of leading indicator aren't we? No matter how elusive or perhaps even impossible it may be we keep trying. Looking at the chart above you can see the index has fallen below the bull filter. Also, the OBV seems to be hanging in there. The problem with OBV it is slow to react to price and volume change, that can be a good thing and sometimes bad, it depends on your trading time frame. The market has been on a strong rise and it was highly probable it would have a pullback. The thinking and feeling seems to be that a pullback is inevitable, probably to the old highs around 7200.

I suppose overall this chart is looking more bearish in the short term than bullish, so it is a time to be cautious and wait and see what happens from here. A reason why the bull filter is saying stop buying but hold positions. My systems with bear filters are tightening stops and starting to sell more quickly falling positions.

Trading is about having a system that suits your personality and objectives, then doing your best to stick to it.

Until next week, Peter

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 15/10/21: See charts below (updates and comments for the week of 22/10/21 were not published)

The chart below has THREE volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) the weekly volume bars and a 13 period money Flow.

XAO 15TH OCT 21

The index bounces following the US. The 13 period money flow indicator was at levels seen at other extreme lows. The Bull filter is active. Interesting times as this market could explode up from here as the major trend is still up.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/10/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the weekly volume bars.

xao 8th oct 21

I think I said enough last week. You can scroll down to see those comments under last weeks graph. We have a bounce in price and volume. If it can be sustained is another question. More 52 week closing highs this week so some are stocks performing strongly. No alerts for the eBook system as the bull filter is not positive.

The Nasdaq staged a strong bounce but it is the same story there, was it all a great buy point or not?

I will stick my neck out and say this bull market is not over yet.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 1/10/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the weekly volume bars.

 1st Oct 21

Last week I drew a trend line on the OBV where it was "holding the line". This week it has clearly broken. I have drawn another one at the next level of support, it goes back 12 months to Oct 2020.

I have also drawn a horizontal support line at around the 7300 level for the Aussie market.

The US market ended with a strong finish to their trading week. Looking at the chart below you can see what I mean. There is a lot of negativity and fear about the markets at the moment. However if you consider the Nasdaq as the major driver of this market, it looks like a normal pull back in a strong bull trend. Others will disagree but that is what makes a market.

1st Oct 21 Nasdaq

I said a few weeks ago that 4500 is a point of support, it fell to 4550 before bouncing back up.

Of course if this pattern breaks down it then becomes more serious and perhaps the start of another correction. Unfortunately we don't know its direction otherwise we could bet the house. :)

One would expect some strength in the Aussie market on this weeks open, however by now you should know not to expect anything.

Until next week.

Peter

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 24/9/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the weekly volume bars.

xao 24th Sept 21

I have reformatted the chart above to make it easy to analyse. You can see clearly that the price trend has broken down. It was a steep trend and it was inevitable that it would reverse sooner or later. Interestingly the OBV has not broken down. For every seller there there is a buyer, so what's going on? Is the market getting support here? It would probably be better for the longer term if the market corrected back down to around 7200. However if we are in the final blow off stage of a bull market and traders have Nasdaq 20,000 in their sights, this could be a "buy the dip" scenario.

Although not shown on the chart the Bull filter for the eBook system has turned to negative, so no alerts for that system this week. There are alerts for the 52 week closing high system and they are below.

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 21/9/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the weekly volume bars. It also has a 12 exponential moving average.

XAO 21ST SEP 21

Hmm. Well the eBook system gave signals to buy on monday 20th Sept. They actually held up pretty wll considering the big fall that day. I must remember to put this chart up on the weekend, as I now have live data and the chart is showing the days trading on Tuesday (today as I write this).

So this week, or should I say at the moment the bull filter is telling us to wait. The OBV trend line is hanging in there. If it breaks down it would suggest more falls are coming. It's hard to see how after a big fall like that the market won't follow through with more selling. Traders have been talking about this fall for weeks and now it's arrived, I would expect the shorts to get excited.

However in a bull market it's hard to pick the top, no matter how over bought it may seem. This could be a Sept/Oct pullback before the rally into Xmas.

Who knows.

 

 

52 Week closing highs:

The signals below are so you can follow trades that make NEW 52 week highs for the 52 week high system.

 

52 week closing highs

A new 52 week high for this system is classified when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.

If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW  52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often given elsewhere.

The signals provided are  WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.

The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 7/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 7/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.

Of course the 7 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.

So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!

Entry:

Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)

The 7 ema to be above the 12ema

Exit:

if the 7 ema crosses below the 12 ema

The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and  taught to private clients or at my courses.

 

These are the 52 week closing highs (without a bull filter) for the week ending 17/9/21:

Remember these scans are not using a Bull filter. The signals are for the simple 52 week CLOSING high entry and 7/12 EMA crossover exit system only.

 ASX 300

CQR IMU KAR QAN SCG CRN

 ASX 300-500

HAS SMR SRV

 

52 WEEK HIGHS FOR THE E Book system: (That does use a Bull filter) If you are confused about the use of filters, I suggest you read well the comments about that above.  

   CQR IMU KAR QAN SCG CRN

 

My apologies for not posting charts for a few weeks. I have changed data providers and had a job reformatting charts etc.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 10/9/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the weekly volume bars. It also has a 12 exponential moving average.

 xao 10TH SEP

I am posting this at 2pm on the Monday following last weeks price action. That explains the small green up bar, (because of live data) after the big red down bar the market had last week.

The OBV indicator looks supportive, not falling the same as the price so that may offer some support this week. Only a few new closing 52 week highs this week, not surprising considering last weeks falls. The market "feels" nervous, I suppose it is September and it's not a strong month historically. See the chart below.

Until next week.

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 3/9/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the weekly volume bars. It also has a 12 exponential moving average.

4TH SEPT 21

Let's keep the chart simple with just the EMA and the OBV. You can see clearly what's happening, the market is screaming up. If I was not so busy with other things in my life I would be writing newsletters spruiking about my thoughts regarding Nasdaq 20,000. Ok, I can't help myself, the probability of that is increasing, the question is when? Hopefully not too soon as happened in the Dotcom year 2000, so it was not sustainable. The best outcome is a continuing slow rise.

However markets and humans are slow to learn. Have you read "Popular delusions and the Madness of Crowds" ? First publishd in 1841 it was one of the early works disussing crowd psycholgy. I recommend it. My thinking is that more likely the market will have a blow off rally, then a steep sell off. 

Not surprisingly a lot of 52 week highs in the ASX 300 this week. I notice last night the gold price rallied, so expect a positive reaction in the Aussie gold stocks Monday. Sadly I got stopped out of my ETHUSD trade, but re entered once the trend resumed, since then I have bought some XRP (Ripple) and some Bitcoin gold.

Intereresting days.

Till next week, Peter

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 13/8/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow Index (MFI)using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 

Another strong week with many 52 week closing highs, (see alerts below) It was a good week for me with ETHUSD continuing to rise. I sold out half my gold position which has recovered quite a bit. Also I bought into PRU and WAF. Wow, the strength of this market is something to behold. It would not surprise me to see a big push up soon, with lots of volume. Let's see.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 30/7/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow Index (MFI)using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 6/8/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow Index (MFI)using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 

Hi all, well this is one of the most interesting charts I have seen, and that is saying something after all the charts I have seen. This index looks very bullish to me. So last week I sold a lot of my gold stocks, I am only holding one now PRU. ETHUSD continues to rally, its gone crazy this week. I have a few lithium stocks going well and my China Tech trade is stagnant.

I do have a large position of Gold futures which got smashed this week, I think its oversold short term but will look to unwind that at the best prices. Gold just does not seem to be getting any love, Van Tharp says Bitcoin is the new Gold, he may be right.

This week I will be looking at "home" stocks, that means any stock connected to home life, as we have all been home so much and consumer spending stats show that is where peoples money is going, makes sense.

On a separate note, I have had a few passionate discussions with friends and family about the big C.

I am going to put on my Zen priest hat now. Please respect others decisions, be they vaxers, anti-vaxers or pro-choicers. I rarely talk about the big C because it seems many people cannot stay calm - but have to "take a side". As traders we embrace the philosophy of "dont know" and attempt to flow with the uncertainty the best we can. I suggest we do the same with other things in life, stay calm and show respect to others, despite them making decisions we do not agree with.

See you next week.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 30/7/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow Index (MFI)using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 

 

 

 

Hi, thought I would try something different. I am using a different volume indicator, the 13 week Money Flow Index, you can google it for more info.

So what's it doing, well I suppose you could call it a rising wedge, according to TA that's good, who knows, things turn on a dime. The market is up - again - is it getting boring? Not if your long I suppose. Well I was wrong about gold with it rallying this week. I was right about cryptos, I bought some more ETHUSD. I had a good week as my portfolio is heavy in gold stocks and ETH. I dipped my toe in the water with a small long position on China Tech, can it keep falling? I think it's oversold.

Also, I am in jail, Covid jail. Locked up. I am using the time to work on the house, the website, Zen, and strive towards more meaningful relationships with my partner and kids :) Everyone is a bit over it, (particularly home schooling) but as humans we need to look on the bright side. Things can always be worse.

I have painted the kitchen, the book is finally with the type setters, today I am running a zoom meditation then fixing a door. All the best and........

See you next week.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 23/7/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow (CMF) using a 6 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

 XAO 23RD jULY 21

Perhaps you could start by reading last weeks comments. If you couldn't be bothered what I said was the market is still going up, defying gravity. Nasdaq 20,000 may not be far away. We now have a slight divergence between CMF and price, but its only a 6 week period and its not that reliable, the bulls could ignore it. The OBV is strong.

My Etherum trade has recovered. Last week it was 1850 and today its 2130. Why didnt I load up? The conservative trader in me said wait.

Gold is still struggling to make an impact. I am starting to wonder if this trade is going to fissal out. Tech is back in favour, American tech that is, Chinese tech stocks still getting belted.

Its an interesting world. The Chinese want to control all they can, it might come back to bite them. Cryptos have left the country, is that good? I dont think so, the Americans are not stupid, in debt maybe, but not stupid. They may find a clever way to incorporate cryptos WITH the dollar, now that would be something.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 16/7/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow (CMF) using a 6 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

xao 16th july21

Yep, it's still going up. Until we get a clear signal it is over (the bull market) it is not. Difficult is'nt it?

I notice the miners had a good week. I find that interesting. If the world economy is heading for recession/depression than why are the miners rising? Is it the inflation factor pushing commodity prices up, or is demand still there from China and the world for more expansion?

Perhaps a little of both. Gold is reluctant to make a significant break to the upside, and cryptos are still languishing. Etherum (one I follow) does appear to be sitting on support, we will see.

 




MARKET COMMENTS: As of 2/7/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow (CMF) using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

XAO 2ND JULY

Lets keep it simple this week and remove the CMF indicator. So, despite the doom and gloomers and perhaps gravity, the market continues to rise. The US market had a strong close to the week so expect a rise on our market on Monday.

Price is up, so is volume. It's a bull market until it ends and no one knows when.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 25/6/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow (CMF) using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

XAO 25TH jUNE

I suppose a slightly bearish week this one. Not many 52 week highs and a red bar indicating caution. The CMF ( I have gone back to the longer 13 period) is very high, warning of an overbought condition?

Hmm, how difficult it can be to know..........However we are entering the time of year when markets often fall into October, then rally to Xmas. It's a time to be careful. Gold stocks look oversold but the gold price may not have bottomed quite yet. Despite all that the Nasdaq keeps going higher. I have a target of 20,000 but dont ask me when!

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 18/6/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow (CMF) using a 6 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

XAO 18TH JUNE

 A very similar looking chart to last week. Same story too about the CMF divergence. The market is very bullish, new highs in many sectors. Who would have thought this 18 months ago?!

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 12/6/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow (CMF) using a 6 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

xao 12TH JUNE

The strength continues. Although now we have some divergence on the 6 period CMF. But the divergences that have been signalling lately dont seem to be having an impact on slowing this market down. When markets are so strong and trends are strong, you might as well throw away indicators in my opinion.

Have a great week and some good trades.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 28/5/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow (CMF) using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

 XAO 28TH MAY 21

Ha. Well my comments 2 weeks ago could not have been more wrong! Why do I bother? I suppose if anything it shows the power of sticking to a system and not getting mentally caught up in attempting to read charts.

I have taken the CMF back to a slower 13 week, it appears to be in a low area so the bulls will be looking to push it up with more buying volume.

The OBV is just powering, any wonder with that huge volume bar 2 weks ago.

The 52 week high alerts have come back in force this week, see below. I notice they are mostly in the ASX 200 where the "value" stocks live. There is talk of rotation away from growth stocks to value old economy stocks, time will tell on that.

Have a great week.

 

52 Week closing highs:

The signals below are so you can follow trades that make NEW 52 week highs for the 52 week high system.

 

52 week closing highs

A new 52 week high for this system is classified when the stock price is at its highest close (or equal to the highest close) counting back 52 weeks.

If a stock continues to make new highs, for example in the 53rd and 54th week, they are now regarded as ROLLING highs, not NEW 52 week highs.To clarify again, the buy signal for THIS system discussed is a NEW  52nd week or 1 year closing high, not a rolling high as is often given elsewhere.

The signals provided are  WITHOUT A BULL FILTER.

The exit used FOR THIS METHOD is the 7/12 EMA crossover. Therefore, some stocks will be re signalling a new high buy signal if they have been recently exited by using the 7/12 exit within the last 12 months. This is important and you need to understand this.

Of course the 7 EMA needs to be above the 12 EMA to make the 52 week high valid, (otherwise we would be selling straight away) nearly always this is the case, but rarely if a stock spikes it is not.

So to repeat, the rules are: USING WEEKLY PARAMETERS!

Entry:

Share price to make a 52 closing (or equal to) week high (when selecting a buy, favour the cheapest stock)

The 7 ema to be above the 12ema

Exit:

if the 7 ema crosses below the 12 ema

The above system contains no position sizing, bull or bear filters or fundamental stock selection, these are discussed and  taught to private clients or at my courses.

 

These are the 52 week closing highs (without a bull filter) for the week ending 28/5/21:

Remember these scans are not using a Bull filter. The signals are for the simple 52 week CLOSING high entry and 7/12 EMA crossover exit system only.

 ASX 200

 ALQ HUB PPT QUB SUL

 ASX 200 TO 300

 CQE

 ASX 300 to 500

 OCL

52 WEEK HIGHS FOR THE E Book system: (That does use a Bull filter) If you are confused about the use of filters, I suggest you read well the comments about that above.  

  ALQ HUB PPT QUB SUL CQE

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 14/5/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 6 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

XAO 14th May 21

I don't like the look of this chart. Mainly because the OBV line had broken its up trend, but I have been cautious on this index for a few weeks now. A little hard to see on this chart but if you zoom in you can see what I mean about the OBV trend line.

Although the price index is above its 12 EMA there are very few 52 week highs this week, only one in the 300 and one in the 300 to 500, which has been one of the strongest sectors. Its a turn around from last week when the market was looking strong again but the bears may be winning this fight around the levels we are at.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 7/5/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 6 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

 XAO 7TH MAY 21

This chart looks similar to last weeks. Watching the market through the week it "feels strong". Although we are in May and the market has run so hard from the bottom in March 2020, it still may have more upside. It shows the fulility at times of technical analysis for at the moment things can go either way. The charts are hard to read even for this veteran.

The US had a strong close on Friday and the gold price rallied, I notice more strength in the junior stocks than the majors which is a sign that the bull market in gold stocks could be just getting going. The tech stocks bounced too, so I expect some good profits next week for those holding a diverse portfolio.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 30/4/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

 XAO 30TH APRIL 21

Ok. Well this is getting interesting. I have changed the CMF from a 13 weekly to a 6 weekly, to make it a little more dynamic (quicker).

As you can see it is up very high on the scale. Often when it gets this high we have a sideways period or perhaps a fall. A higher price but a failing of the indicator to also make a higher price is one to watch carefully. For example look at the CMF indicator just before Covid in Feb 2020.

The OBV has not broken the trendline, but if it does this will be a further sign the Sell in May voodoo is upon us.

If you are a discretionary trader it is probably a good time to be cautious. If you are a system trader perhaps prepare your self mentally for what could be a drawdown soon. We have not had one for a year.

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 23/4/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green. This graph also has a MACD.

 XAO 23rd April 21

A fall then a recovery this week. We really are just following the US (as usual). The US markets had a strong night Friday so "expect" a rise in our market on monday.

 

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green. This graph also has a MACD.

 

XAO 16th April 21

I suppose the charts have been pointing to this rally. Big volume this week as the index makes a clear breakout to the upside. I was just looking at a monthly chart of this index, suggesting this rally could have quite a way to go. Will we get the Nasdaq 20,000 that I discussed last year? Also reviewing that possibility, if the Nasdaq is to repeat the 1999 performance (bubble) it will get to 25,000! So if you think we are in a bubble, compared to 1999 we are not if you use the performance of the Nasdaq as your guide.

Hang on to your hats if that happens. Or better still, have a system and stick to it because the volatility will be very challenging. I suggest employing a "tightening" exit. That means if you have stocks that fly up, you could change your exit to something quicker to lock in profits.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 9/4/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

 XAO 9th April 21

Well what a week. The index has now made a new weekly closing high. More significant (I think) than the intra day high that many look for. The last weekly closing high in Feb 2020 was 7230, now it sits at 7252. Low volume again because of the short Easter trading week, but indicators continue to point up.

Gold stocks (as I mentioned last week) had a big rally (why didn't I buy more?!) The altcoins also rallied again. They seem to rally over the weekends, are the crypto traders sitting at home on weekends trading driving the prices up?  Who knows with that market.

All this just confirms to me, even after 25 years of trading, you just don't know what will happen in the markets. One needs to be prepared for anything. I think the best way to do that is to not expect anything, once we start expecting we can't flow with what is happening.

Peter

 

 

 


MARKET COMMENTS: As of 1/4/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

XAO 1ST APRIL 2021

Well that was an interesting week. Low volume because of the 4 day trading week. However the trend remains up. The index looks to me like it will continue to rise, Easter may interupt that flow a little but it all depends on the OS markets. Cryptos look ready to roll again and has Gold hit its bottom? Gold stocks are suggesting this is the case. Gold stocks often lead the gold price and they have been resilient recently. It still seems as if crypto is winning re the crypto V gold battle, but why cant they rise together?

Anything can happen as this last year shows us. My condolences to the Byron Bay blues fest, I did some work on music festivals some years ago, some good people there and my heart goes out to them.

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 26/3/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

 XAO 26TH March 21

Apologies for missing last week. A few weeks ago I sustained  a hand injury that required some hospital work, after quite a few injections and other drugs my head was not in the best place and I just needed a break :)

Anyway, here we are this week. Like I said a few weeks ago the market appears strong. The bull filter is still positive and volume indicators are coming off their lows. Wall St. finished higher for the week so that will spill over into our market Monday, well one would think so but as we all know over thinking can be our Nemesis.

If one was to be picky you could say the volume this week (up bar) was not as high as last week (down bar) but the overall trend is up. We still have about 6 weeks until mid May, when the dreaded Sell in May mantra is heard. Until then, as the market seems to often move in 6 week cycles, we could be in for a strong April.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 12/3/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

xao 12th March 21

 Not a lot to say this week. I have similar thoughts to last week. Strength continues in this index, the banks really performing well helping to support this top 20 heavily weighted index. It may be the XAO top 500, but we all know banks and miners drive the index.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 5/3/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

 

XAO 5TH MARCH 21
 

I was expecting the bull filter to breached this week, but it hangs in there. More 52 week closing highs this week, this seems a strong and resilient market. The CMF is now as low as it was during the Covid sell off, is the only way up from now? I drew some trendlines on the price chart, I was "expecting" the price to fall to around 6600 to get support but it may not do that. The OBV still looks a little bearish, but all else looks strong. Once we make a new all time high at 7,290 it may be off to the races for the Aussie market! 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 26/2/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

 

 

XAO 26TH fEB 21

I have zoomed in on the chart this week. If you want a broader time frame look at last weeks chart. The volume filters are negative. The OBV indicator has broken its trend line. It is also lower than its lower low, the price has yet to catch up to this down trending indicator. Price is falling, volume is increasing, you can see that by looking at the volume bars on the chart.

This is a bearish looking chart. I know that the bull filter is still active (just) but I would be careful buying into this market at the moment.

There were again a lot of 52 week closing highs this week. The Aussie market is strong and money still flows into the small and mid caps. However, these stocks will fall if the index falls.

I see first support at 6600, then 6500 and 6400, lets see what happens this week.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 19/2/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Chaiken Money Flow using a 13 week period. The CMF  is displayed in green.

XAO 19th Feb 21

 This chart above looks a little "busy" with quite a few lines drawn. The bottom line (ha ha) is that the index looks a little shaky. Now I know I have said this before but some volume trendlines are breaking. Price is everything but falling volumes can give a clue.............I am watching that OBV line carefully.

Also this week there were many new 52 week closing highs. Now one would think this is a sign of strength but often there is a pullback from so many stocks breaking up and out.

Will gold and silver and the related stocks ever rally? I think when the cryptos take a breather there will be a rotation into that sector. It could be even happening today (Monday 22nd Feb)

Hope you enjoyed this little read. Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 29/1/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 6 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 

 

xao 29th jan 2021

  

 Last week I said I was concerned about the market looking weak. We had a well overdue pullback but it still looks quite strong over the mid term. This index above could fall to 6600, perhaps less,  but at that level the OBV trend line would still be in tact. Buyers and their money makes the market go up, if the buyers fall away price falls. A fall to 6600 is a 320 point fall from the recent top, so around a 5% drop. A 5% drop will shake a lot of people out of the market, particularly the newccomers that are not used to trading.

I have changed the MFI indicator to a 6 weekly as its more dynamic. You can see it is still pointing down.

If the volumes over the next week or two hold I think this will be a buy opportunity before the market marches upward again. 6,600 could be a gift (its now 6,870). There is a lot of talk about being in a bubble. The fact people are talking about a bubble to me is a sign we are not yet there yet. We will be in a bubble when my barber tells me to buy the Nasdaq. The other day he told me to buy EV stocks, not realising the run in EV stocks started 6 months ago and recently they were sold off heavily.

So, we aint there yet. Nasdaq 20,000 we will be.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 22/1/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

XAO 22nd Jan

I admit to being concerned. However I have been wrong many times this last year so my thoughts and feelings mean nothing. We do now have a negative divergence between the 13 period MFI and price. Its not a big divergence so nothing may come of it, but it does suggest buyers are being cautious.

Crypto's have had a pullback, they were looking overbought, but everything looks overbought.

I was thinking today about my suggestion the Nasdaq may get to 20,000. When I said that is was around 7000 now its approaching 14,000. If it's to repeat the performance in 1999 and triple from the pullback low, then it's on target and we could get to 20000 this year.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/1/21: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

XAO 8th Jan 21

Apologies I missed the updates last week. I was away on holidays with the family. We got the fireworks in gold stocks although a pull back is happening. Maybe all the money is going into cryptos.

The index above looks strong again with a reasonable volume bar this week. Volume indicators look a little weak but Xmas is a low volume period so it is hard to judge what importance that volume may be.

Despite all the drama in the US the Nasdaq powers on, its at 13,000 now and Bitcoin is 40,000. Etherum is 1,200. Crikey.

Where will it end? Dr. Van Tharp is saying Bitcoin may triple again this year to over 100,000. Etherum has tripled in a few months. It was around 350 in October 2020.

Until next week, hang on to your hats the ride is not over it seems.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 24/12/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

XAO 24th Dec 2020

Not much change this week which is to be expected. I notice as I write the gold price is having an upmove. We may get some fireworks

in gold stocks next week.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 18/12/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

XAO 18th Dec 2020

Not a lot of change from last week. The OBV indicator is looking extended isn't it? If it pulls back to the mean one would think prices will come with it. There are times when we wonder if it is riskier to be in the market or not in it! I wrote a newsletter in September about the Nasdaq at 20,000 by 2022. When I wrote that article it was 11,000, now its 12,700. So its rising at about 5% a month, well on target.

The markets do appear to be in a euphoric rally, like depressive falls we had 8 months ago. It has been said the market is manic depressive or bipolar, I wont argue with that comparison.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 11/12/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 XAO 12th Dec 2020

So, things have had a slight change this week. Three weeks ago I made the comment that the Money Flow Index was not yet in overbought territory, but it appears to be now. The slower moving OBV still looks very strong, but we did have a sell off on Friday and some stocks are weakening. Think in reverse for me. In April the world was going to end and everyone was selling, now confidence has returned and people are buying. It was a good time to buy back then, perhaps not now.

Markets look forward, and what they were looking at back in April was stimulus, technology, health and the positives of Covid for many companies.

Looking forward now I hear musings of stimulus uncertainty, high Covid numbers, bankruptcies, less income and more unemployment. Also the market has had a huge rally so it is understandable that it is slowing and being more cautious.

We have had a shift of money from tech and health into cyclical stocks, whats next? Maybe commodities. Christmas is often a strong time for gold and gold stocks. If you are trading those don't go to sleep over the break, there could be fireworks.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 4/12/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

XAO 4TH DEC 2020

The uptrend continues. There is a lot of confidence in the Australian economy at the moment, particularly resources. Looking at the stocks breaking out into 52 week closing highs you will see that the cyclical companies are dominating.

Also, speaking all things Australian, compared to what is happening OS with the pandemic and economies, one should feel extremely grateful we live in the Great Southern Land. Health is wealth, and we have it.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 27/11/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 XAO 27th nov 2020

More price gains, more volume, the rally continues. The XAO is not that far away from its highs in Feb 20, the way this market is going it may well take out those highs by Feb 2021. That will be an incredible recovery, but in line with the average bereavement time of a human after a significant loss. This was the theory of Edwin Coppock, the inventor of the Coppock indicator that uses a 12 to 14 month time frame to signify major uptrends and psychological turning points. If you want to read more about that click on the link below.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppock_curve

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 20/11/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 XAO 20th Nov 2020

Strength continues. Its good to see the index recovering so well. Australia has a great economy in my opinion, despite the knockers that say we only build homes and dig holes. Personally I would argue and ask, what's wrong with providing people with the most basic of needs? A home and somewhere to live.

So, my little rant over, you can see the chart above with the OBV breaking into new highs and the the 13 period MFI rising. It is also a long way from overbought territory, indicated by the blue dotted line. This rally could continue for a while. I notice that Shane Oliver from AMP shares my views with an opinon that the Aussie market may outperform the US next year. If banks and resources continue their recovery watch this index fly.

What a pity people couldnt see that 8 months ago when the "world was ending!" . Oh we have short memories.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 13/11/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 XAO 13TH Nov 2020


 A strong week. My volume indicators last week got it right, with the OBV now confirming the upward move. There seemed to be a lot of rotation last week, with gold and tech stocks coming off the boil (gold stocks have been on the nose for a while) and money flowing back into more cyclical sectors and stocks. The CBA's comments this week about their anticipation of a strong economic recovery didn't hurt the finance sector. It all remains to be seen if this rally can continue with the Covid situation in Europe and America getting worse. I am not taking anything away from our health workers and Government, but it seems we were lucky with the timing of the pandemic. As we got it under control summer arrived, helping our cause, the Northern Hemisphere are burdened now with rising numbers and dropping temperatures, not a good mix.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 6/11/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 XAO 6th Nov 20

As the saying goes "a week in politics is a long time". We could say the same about the market. The result in the US, although it did seem uncertain for a while, seemed to make market participants bullish. It appears Biden has won, unless Trump can manifest a miracle.

The chart above has been changed slightly from my normal display. The MFI (in green) has been changed to a 6 week time frame. This is an attempt to indicate more recent volume action. As you can see it looks quite positive, rising with the price action and appearing to break above the overhead trendline of around 4 months.

The OBV, as I have often said is a slower indicator, but also reliable. It certainly worked well during the Covid crash, indicating the extreme oversold condition of the market. In this chart it is lagging a little, but it is not falling.

Overall this chart looks ok, it is definitely in a sideways pattern, which can be a dangerous time for many traders. The important thing to remember is to only hold or even trade stocks in solid up trends, reducing the chance of being whipped out in sideways movements. Sideways markets often require wider stops, along with some concentration by you, focusing on stocks with strong fundamentals.

It is a time to be selective in what you buy, it appears a "stock pickers" market has returned.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 30/10/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

XAO 30th Oct 20

As I said last week, volume was weak and uncertainty reigns, it was always unlikely the market would rally this week.

The index (as opposed to some stocks) has been sideways now for some time. Always bear in mind this index is dominated by the banks and it is difficult for it  to look strong if banks are weak. We do seem to have a 2 way economy, some sectors strong, some weak. Anyway, we could discuss what may happen infinitum, but until things in the US have some certainty (and it's all the market really cares about not who wins) the sideways to down action will probably prevail.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 23/10/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

XAO 23 Oct 2020

The bull filter is active and has been for 3 weeks now. To me volume still looks a little weak, I think that is understandable as many wait for the US election outcome. Some interesting stats from the Economist magazine are: No incumbent president since 1928 has failed to be re-elected when the stock market is up, which apparently gives Trump an 87% chance of winning. However! No incumbent president has been re-elected in the midst of a recession. So on those stats, it would seem a close call.

Whoever wins I don't think it will make much difference to the market, the policy of stimulus will continue.  If you research economic performance on the US economy over the long term, the Democrats have a better record, but somehow the market thinks its the Republicans. With that thinking if Biden wins we may get a short sharp pullback, but really who knows?

Good luck next week.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 16/10/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 xao 16th Oct 20

Price is up, volume is back. Nothing more  to say really. I will say the move up is a little surprising with the US election around the corner.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 9/10/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.


 XAO 9th Oct 20

What an interesting market we have. Price has a strong move this week, the volumes are still a liitle low. Over in the US it had a strong week, it also rallied again last night so one would "expect" our market to follow.

Quite a lot of signals this week, as opposed to hardly any in the last 2 weeks. Scrolling through the charts I notice many stocks are up over 100% from their lows just 6 to 7 months ago.

Next week I may not be able to post the signals. I am away on a retreat where internet service is weak. I will do my best to get them posted.

 

Also below I have posted the trades the eBook system has done since it re entered the market, and also the equity graph starting with 100K. It is up 25% from when re buying in early June.

    Trades

 chart equity

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 2/10/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 XAO 2nd Oct 20

The index continues to languish. I read once the saying "volume makes the choo choo go" and it seems that the fading volume I was talking about over the last few weeks is taking its toll. Over in the old U.S. of A the Nasdaq continues to defy gravity, but as I write (8pm Friday night) the futures are down 2%. Of course anything can happen during the day session.

During my online seminar I did mention the Money Flow Index on the Nasdaq, despite the bounce last week the 13 week period money flow index is pointing down, of course 13 weeks is slow, but if I shorten that to a more dynamic 6 weeks, it is still pointing down. Have you ever noticed how markets often move in 6 week periods? 6 up, a pause or turn, 6 down, a pause or turn. The Covid crash was 6 weeks down before the rally up.

So, the bull filter is negative, there is not one 52 week closing high this week. Caution, uncertainty and fear dominate.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 25/9/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

xao 25TH sEPT 20

First of all thank you to those that contacted me to see if I was ok, seeing as I did not do a post over the weekend. A pressing family issue kept me away from the screens. Nice to see people care.

Moving on to the markets you can see the bull filter has just sneaked above its EMA. Volumes are still dubious but we all know price is the dominant indicator. Interesting over in the US, the Nasdaq is recovering, is this the dip on the way to 20,000? A topic I discussed at my online seminar with ATAA on Monday 21st Sept.

I do have a copy of the presentation, I will be uploading it to my you tube channel (which I rarely use) soon.

See you next week.

Peter

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 18/9/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

XAO 18th sept 20

One week does not make a trend but weakness prevails as the index stuggles this week and finishes on the downside. Volume is up, for every seller there is a buyer so its interesting that volume is up. Does it mean the smart money is selling or buying?. The bull filter is negative so the strategy for the above method is stand aside.

This coming Monday night (21st Sept)  I am doing a presentation online for the Sydney ATAA. If you are not a member you can get free access if you follow the intructions below.

Normally a visitor pays $15 to attend. 
 
For anyone interested in attending Karen Wong from the Sydney chapter is offering a free visit using the code 
 
SYD1STVISIT
 
Simply enter the code on registration after following the instructions in the link below.
 


 

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of 11/9/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 xao 11TH SEPT 2020

The index is looking sick. Volume indicators are down and so is price. The Nasdaq in the US is approaching short term support so will that slow the down trend? If we are really in the next bull market, the Nasdaq will attract buyers and rally again. I suggest that is the index to watch as the new economy is all about technology, so it seems.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 4/9/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI  is displayed in green.

 

xao 4th sept 20

So. Last week I asked the question was the pullback happening soon? as the volume indicators were starting to turn down into possible negative territory. You can see on the chart above the XAO is now below the bull filter, so there will be no more buying if you are using a filter like that. I have been testing alternative and additional exits for the eBook system, as the pullback in March was too much for most people, bearing in mind it was an extraordinary event. I will be discussing those exits at my online ATAA meeting on the 21st Sept.

So where is support? Well in my opinion support is where the US markets decide it is, our market will follow it down, perhaps not as much, as we have not rallied as far as the US market has since the March lows.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 28/8/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI line is displayed in green.

 XAO 28TH aUG 20

 A big volume bar this week, and price is down slightly. The OBV hangs in there but the MFI looks to be breaking down a little. Is this the correction many have been waiting for?

 

 
 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 14/8/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI line is displayed in green.

 xao 14TH aUG 2020

 Market strength continues. Last week I mentioned the Russsell 2000 in the US, it had a flat week. Not much to say this week. If you are a trend trader good times are back.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 7/8/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI line is displayed in green.

XAO 7th Aug 20

Not much to say this week except the XAO index is hanging in there. This week there are five new 52 week closing highs in the ASX 300, with commodity stocks dominating. Also two more commodity stocks in the 300 - 500 sector. A chart I find interesting is the Russell 2000 in the US. The talk has been the stock rally is a bubble led by the Nasdaq, if that is the case why is the 2000 mid caps in the US so strong? Chart below. Perhaps the rally is more broad based than once thought. The indicators on the chart below are a 14 RSI and a MACD.

RUT 7th Aug 20

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 31/7/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period. The MFI line is displayed in green.

 XAO 31ST JULY 20

A pullback this week on some higher volume. Is this the pullback many have been predicting? We do not have a break down in volume trend lines yet, like we did before Covid hit. Lookling back at March you can see the OBV trend line broke down and the MFI had already been trending down for some time. This week will be a tester, if it falls below the EMA well then of course the eBook system will stop buying, but a sharp sell off could happen because there seems to be so much nervousness about this market at the moment. 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 24/7/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

 XAO24TH jULY 20

Everytime I look at this chart, I see strength. Prices are rising and so is volume. Perhaps when we get good news about Corona virus, the markets will fall, because all the bad news is not slowing down the uptrend. I ran a scan on the eBook system today. There is a philosophy that the stocks that first give buy signals after a bear market, are the stocks that lead the next bull market. The eBook system signalled buys on the 1/6/20, after its Bull filter kicked in to buy mode.  Out of the 19 stocks that were bought 9 were gold stocks, if you include FMG that would make it 10 of the 19. So, it appears by far that the Gold sector is the new bull market, with a few resource stocks tagging along for the ride. Below is a list of the stocks the system is holding in the top 300. The system currently holds 18 stocks so one will be bought on monday, that will be HUB.

The system has had a good month rising 10%, recovering somewhat after being clobbered in March and April.

Note: the entry date below for each trade is the Friday (5th) of the week, the correct date is actually the Monday 1/6/20

ebook stocks

 

 

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of 17/7/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

 xao 17TH jULY 20

 It is an interesting market this one. One of the themes in the book I am writing is to look at the market with a mind of interest, not fear. If you can do that it can do wonders for your trading by just adjusting your perspective.

This week there was uncertainty, the US market has stalled a little and some of our Tech stocks came off the boil. A rotation appears to be happening. I notice this week a return to dividend paying stocks, Resources, Staples and even Utilities, although not in an uptrend, seem to be getting some love. Perhaps for the dividends. I see this as more conservative investors returning to the market, now feeling more safe as the dust settles. Also the question, where else do you put your money?

I have been talking about a repeat of the late 1990's rally. Below is a video from an American commentator suggesting just that.  Its 8 min long. Have a good week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jj_-yTpvQDc

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 10/7/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

XAO 10th July 2020

 The look of this chart has hardly changed from last week. A flat week here in Aus but overnight the US rallied again and so gains will be expected here on Monday. Below is a chart of the Nasdaq in the US.

Last week I discussed the rally in 1998 to 2000, it looks to be happening again. Before covid I was of the opinion the markets were going to "melt up", in hindsight it seems I was correct, with the crash in March being the buy opportunity of a lifetime. In 1998 the Nasdaq broke through 2000 to make 5000 in 18 months. A repeat of that will take us from 10,000 to 25,000 by mid 2021. So, the decison we all have is how to play this market. A momentum system with tight stops may be the one to use, but whatever one uses it could be a bumpy ride.

 

Nasdaq 10th July 20

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 3/7/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

XAO 3rd july 20

The index rose again, strength remains in Tech, Health, Gold and Consumer stocks like COL and WES.  We live in interesting times as the market defies what most economists think, that the economy will struggle post Covid. This index is telling us the opposite. The Nasdaq in the US is even more defiant, I can't but help liken what is happening now to 1998, when the Nadaq fell 30% to rise another 300% before crashing in 2000.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 26/6/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

 

 XAO 26th june 20

Things have changed a little. On the weekly chart the index went sideways to slightly down this week. The OBV trend line has broken its trend line to the downside, although it has not made a new lower low. The 13 weekly period of the Money Flow Indicator is at very high levels, this is not to suggest the market will fall, but buyers may be a little tired at the moment. Without buyers the market will drift sideways to down. Below is a daily chart...

XAO daily 26th june 20

In the daily chart above I have drawn some more trend lines, and changed the MFI to a 5 period, to reflect a weeks price/volume action. Trend lines are holding on the price and the OBV, but MFI looks to be under pressure. The MFI is a more dynamic indicator and will reflect short term movements more, as with all short term indicators they can lead us off path. We know the US market fell on Friday so no doubt we will open down on Monday, if that daily OBV trend line breaks down, I would expect short term traders will run for the exit. I would think more cautious traders will exit on Monday.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 19/6/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

 XAO 19th June 20

There seems no stopping for the XAO index at the moment. A big volume bar this week as money continues to come into the market and the price rises. Indicating that buyers are overwhelming sellers. Despite the doom and gloom and the constant talk of the economy in dire straits, the index is defiant. Volume indicators (the OBV and MFI) are still pointing up.

The Australian stock market is shifting. It has been for some years as the banks dominate the index less. Other sectors are emerging to take up more of the index weighting. While the financial stocks languish, sectors like consumer, health, tech, and gold are very strong, helping to push this index up. Traditional sectors like banks, utilities and energy continue to languish. To me I am undecided as to how the resources sector is looking, some companies are going well but others not.

So, are we in the throes of the new economy? An economy now driven more by the needs of the domestic consumer. I notice the property sector is strong too, below is a chart I used at a recent talk I gave about the Real Estate Investment Trust market. I used this chart to discuss the theory of the 14 years property cycle that some adhere to.

No drop off of money here, in fact quite the opposite, its pouring in. If I were the Federal Government I would be doing the same, support this sector. It's the 2nd biggest income earner in the country and creates the "wealth effect" encouraging people to invest and spend. The strategy seems to be working.

Until next week.

XPJ 19th June 20

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 12/6//20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

 XAO 12th June 2020

A pullback in the US had the same impact on the XAO. Volumes remain intact, the volume on this weeks trading bar was lower than the previous two bars. The OBV trend line is still in place and the Money Flow Indicator still pointing up, but it is a 13 week calculation. If I look at it on a 6 week calc (not shown) it looks over bought. The markets are responding to the number of Covid cases, I suppose it will take some time to know how deep the impact on the global economy will be. I would think markets will then react to different stats and the true impact of what has been happening the last 3 months will become apparent.

There are very few 52 week closing highs this week. None in the 300, just one in the 300 to 500, and none for the eBook system. Not surprising considering the pull back in the XAO. I counted up the stocks open in the eBook system, out of the 19 there are 8 gold stocks. Will gold lead the next bull market? If not then the sector seems to be the strongest at the moment.

The eBook system entered the market on the 1st June and is down 2.5% because gold stocks have stalled, however that can change very quickly as it is a dynamic sector.

 

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 5/6//20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

 XAO 5th June 20

The rally continues, and looks set to continue next week after better than expected employment figures announced in the US last night. Are we living in a fools paradise? Is this just a bear market rally? Is it a new bull market? Have we entered a new paradigm of finance and economics? Perhaps, as I read an interesting statistic that Nike lost money from closed stores in the US but more than made up for that with increased online sales in China. Last night the Nasdaq made all time highs, surpassing the highs before Covid. The V shape recovery in that index confirmed. The US dollar is falling therefore increasing commodity prices, good for Australia but gold has fallen as the "risk on" mentality returns. And perhaps the most interesting, the Russell 2000 in the US, their mid cap index, is rallying hard to, indicating there is breadth to this rally. There has been a concern that the rally in the US was all about the FANG stocks, but the Russell is showing that is not the case anymore and that confidence is returning to other stocks other than FANG.

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 29/5/20: See charts below

The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

 All Ords 30th May 2020

What a difference a week makes. The banks joined the recovery rally this week driving the XAO index up. The OBV is at all time highs (what a strong and reliable indicator that seems to be) and the 13 week period Money Flow index has well and truly broken its down trend line from last weeks chart. The big news this week is the Bull filter that the eBook system uses is in buy mode, you will see below the signals that system has given. Last week I said I had a feel the market was due for a pull back, goes to show how dangerous it can be to make an assumption or prediction.

I did say last week it depends on the inflow of capital into the market, more buyers, more upward momentum. That happened this week.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 22/5/20: See charts below

 The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

 XAO 22nd May 20

This is interesting, the OBV indicator has made an all time high but the faster moving 13 week Money Flow Indicator has not, it is pointing down. Also the bull filter is still not active so the eBook system won't be giving buy signals yet. I am still out of the market with any trading system, while I enjoy the break and get to work on some long overdue tasks. Next week will be one to watch to see if the market can continue the rally or pull back.

At some point buyers will stop buying and there will be great temptation by those that bought a few weeks ago to sell and take profits, the market needs money going in to go up, and will go down if money comes out. I would like to see more consolidation and volume confirmation, so in a way I am glad the bull filter has not signaled because my intuition is telling me this market will pullback soon. We are in the seasonal time of the market when it does fall. "Sell in May and go away" does have some historical merit to it. The market seems to fall from May to September/October, followed by a rally into Christmas. If you want to read an interesting article about it click on the link below.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp

Of course this time may be different because of all the stimulus and the fact we have had a big fall for 2020. However we need money going in, and I am wondering for the time being if investors and traders have empty tanks and possibly empty hearts to take any more risk.

 

 

 

 

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of 15/5/20: See charts below

 The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

 Xao daily 15th may 20

I am again displaying the daily chart of the All Ords, so the MFI is using a 13 period daily. Is it a sideways move or a slow uptrend? The volume on the Money Flow Index broke up early this week, a positive sign, only to pull back again. I have noticed that on Fridays the market sells off, my guess is traders do not want to hold over the weekend. Some sectors are flying, like gold, and resources and materials are going up too. The tech index has had a big rally also. The financial index is not enjoying the rally, and would be really holding back the look of the All Ords and the ASX 200 as these indicies are weighted heavily to banks. Another sector performing well is the Mid Caps. So as always, the chart above does not really show what is happening within the market, it remains a broad indicator. For example, looking at the weekly chart below of the Gold sector index, the bull filter kicked in 4 weeks ago and I notice the OBV has made an all time high. Something to work on and consider for future strategies.

XGD weekly 15th may 20

 

 

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/5/20: See charts below

 The chart below has two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume (OBV) and the Money Flow index(MFI) using a 13 week period.

XAO 8th May 2020

This week I will discuss the daily chart. As it is the short term that most seem to be wondering "what is happening?" The weekly chart has not changed a lot from last week, yes we had a rally of 160 points, or 3%, but this index is in a sideways move for the moment, will it break up to more highs? We need buyers to push the market higher, more money in means higher prices. It seems the indicator to watch is the 13 period Money Flow Index. What period to use is always the big question with any indicator. Using the 13 period you can see the index started to turn up before the recovery rally started in mid March. If it breaks out of its consolidation lines I have drawn on the chart above, it could be a bullish sign.

We need to always keep in mind the longer term charts. On a weekly scale, filters to signal a return of the Bull have not signalled. I am still sitting out of the market. As frustrating as that can be, particularly with the way some stocks have recovered, for me it is my strategy.

On a personal note,I am feeling vindicated about my analysis that the Covid sell off was completely over done, (but things could reverse quickly). However, "being right" about the market does not always make you money. One needs to remain patient and disciplined.

Have a good week.

Peter

 

 

 

 

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of 1/5/20: See charts below

 

 XAO 1st may 20

 I will start this weeks comments with a weekly chart. As you can see the moving average used for the eBook system is trending down, so there are no buy signals if you are using some sort of weekly market filter, such as that method does.

The index fell this week, all on Friday, the Money Flow index is trending down. As I said last week I would like to have seen more volume coming into the index, but it was not there. The OBV indicator is holding up well, but it is a slower indicator.

As I write I notice the US indexes are down, so one would expect more falls on Monday in the XAO. If the market makes a double bottom and the OBV holds that trend line it could be a good buy opportunity, but we will have to wait and see. If the Money Flow index is still pointing down I would not be buying. Of course I am talking about those that wish to attempt to time a bottom, which is extremely difficult. The safe thing to do is wait for the market to show strength before buying back in. As I often say, one weeks price action does not make a trend, but that is a very bearish looking weekly bar we had this week.

The following chart is in a monthly scale, the Money Flow index had been adjusted to a 3 month period.

XAO monthly 1st may 20

 On a monthly scale the XAO index looks surprisingly healthy. However we have to remember that the shorter term charts "turn" first and will give us a quicker signal to what is possibly ahead of us.

The OBV indicator is still intact. The MFI does lag a little on a monthly scale, but you you can see how oversold it was in mid March. You can also see it can go lower as it did in 2008 and again 2010 before it started trending higher to indicate the recovery was underway.

Putting all that technical jargon to one side, consider this. The market will go up with buyers and down with sellers. It is why the volume indicators can tell us what the mood of the market participants are. I see the longer term and reliable OBV as the poker "tell" in this scenario. I will be watching it closely over the next few weeks.

Below are the 52 week closing highs for this week, signaled without using a market filter. As expected a gold stock made the list, if the trend of the gold index continues up one would expect more in the coming weeks. This happened in 2008 when the gold sector was one of the few sectors producing new highs as the majority of the market fell.

Have a great week, Peter.

 

 

 

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of 24/4/20: See charts below

XAO 24 April 20

The market pulled back this week, in one week the volume indicators wont change much. You can see above they are similar to the week before. Below is a daily chart.

XAO 24 April 20 daily

I would like to see more volume coming into this rally. The daily chart above does not reflect the strong day Wall Street had last night, so you would expect our market to rise on Monday. Looking at the daily chart it appears this market has a bit of work to do before we can start talking about a V shape recovery.

Now, if we want to look at a bullish chart check out the one below. Soon I expect to see 52 week highs in gold stocks.

XGD 24 April 20 daily

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 17/4/20: See charts below

XAO 17th April 20

The chart above of the All Ords shows a bar chart with two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume and the Money Flow Index using a 13 week period. I use the 13 week period as it is one calendar quarter. The long term trend line on the OBV remains in tact. Last week I said would like to see more volume and this week we got it. Are we in for a V shaped recovery?  I read some research the other day stating that only 17% of market commentators felt the market would recover quickly. Does that mean the opposite will happen and in a few months we will be back to normal? The market has a habit of surprising most.

A test will be when the price of the index reaches that trend line I drew on the chart. A pause would be expected and it will be watched closely to see if it can break through to the upside. 52 week highs below, a few more this week. The Bull filter for the eBook system is still negative.

Peter.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 9/4/20: See charts below

 XAO 9th April 2020

The chart above of the All Ords shows a bar chart with two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume and the Money Flow Index using a 13 week period. I use the 13 week period as it is one calendar quarter. The long term trend line on the OBV remains in tact. I would like to see more volume in the Money Flow Index. Ideally a trend line break to the upside. I have lots of longer term charts posted below, as a matter of interest you might like to scroll down and re read my comments from the 6th March, feel free to email me with your thoughts. Peter.

I cant help myself, here is one more chart for you to digest. A quarterly chart showing a long term uptrend and the OBV indicator on top displaying definitive support.

xao 9th April Quarterly

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 3/4/20: See charts below

This chart below shows two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume and the Money Flow Index (displayed in green) using a 13 week format for weekly charts and a 3 period for monthly charts.

Older charts are repeated lower down the page along with comments from previous weeks. The 52 week highs are also posted below.

XAO 3rd April 20

I have kept it simple again this week, using a line chart on the XAO, in a weekly format.

As you can clearly see, price and volume are on support lines. We have had a small bounce.

I am not a fan of Fibonacci however I do notice the rally has stalled at the 38% mark, Fib fans will know the possible significance of this.

This market looks oversold and ripe for opportunity, but the news is Trumping (joke intended) the technicals. What concerns me more is the daily chart below.

XAO Daily 3rd April 20

The OBV line has broken down on a daily chart. Also the 13 period (daily) Money Flow Indicator is meeting overhead resistance.

Its all about the money folks, no money going in, no upward momentum. Buyers need to overpower sellers.

Add to that the bad news coming from the US about Corona and one would expect (dangerous word that one for a trader) more falls.

Remember something important (in my opinion). Charts reflect the emotions of market participants. The chart above indicates to me that traders are being very cautious.

I am.

Just to confuse things (sorry , we live in confusing times) when I zoom in on the On Balance Volume, its doesnt look so bad. You can see why it is so hard to analyse short term charts and why many traders sit out during these times.

Whatever you decide to do this week, I hope you come up trumps!

obv 3rd march 20

 

 

 

 

 

XAO Monthly 27th Mar 2020

XAO 27th Mar 2020

I like to keep charts as simple as possible so sometimes I find line charts the easiest to help determine the big picture, so I have used one for the monthly chart of the XAO 500.  Although not shown on the monthly line chart above, we did get a bounce, which you can see on the weekly bar chart. I have always maintained that the bull market started in early 2013, not in 2009 as so many claim it did. Interesting to note that the price of the index has fallen all the way back to the levels we had in 2013, wiping out the bull market gains from that date. Perhaps too wiping out the economic "fluff", weak companies and over borrowing, something that many economists have been saying needed to happen to reset the economy on a more sound footing.

From a technical perspective the charts look to be at a very strong support area. The monthly chart shows a massive divergence between price and volume, as it did in 2003. I have drawn red lines on the Monthly chart to show this.

The weekly chart shows the On Balance Volume indicator still in a solid uptrend. It also shows the Money Flow Indicator (using a calendar quarter period of 13 weeks) at rock bottom levels. When and if the OBV trend line breaks down, then I would anticipate more selling and another wave down to perhaps 4000, but one would think it would consolidate at the long term tend line of 4500. My experience is that upward trend lines give far more support than do horizontal "support and resistance" areas.

As I said last week in my news letter, the above is all technical "stuff". The fundamentals of the economy now rely on how it copes with the shutdown and we can only wait and see.

All the best till next week.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 23/3/20: See charts below

 

23 rd March 20 Monthly

How low will it go?

This is the big question. Normally we can have an idea by looking at the charts to determine where the probability of either support, or even a reversal may happen. However as many have already alluded to the fact "this time it's different."

I am writing this on monday 23rd March after the days trading.

The market has closed down again, and the reversal of price and MFI just gets more pronounced. Normally I would be screaming buy, but I think this time fundamentals are overtaking any support from the technicals. I almost can't believe the OBV indicator is trending up, either the indicator is broken or we are in for one hell of a bounce.

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of 13/3/20: See charts below

 XAO 13th Mar 20

Well I suppose the big question is."Are we now in a bear market?" I suppose many would say yes!

Perhaps I remain too positive, but when I look at the chart above,  the answer is, not yet.

Also, where did the bull market start? At the very end of the GFC in 2009, or 2013 after 4 years of ups and downs and accumulation? Have we really had 11 years of a bull market? Or 7 years from the break out in 2013? Normally when bull markets bust the OBV line breaks its down trend. It has not, yet. The other volume indicator on the chart above is the 13 week Money Flow Index, it is certainly in oversold territory. As we are driven by the US markets, let's look at what that chart looks like.

SPX 13th Mar 20

If you didnt know about the Covid 19 virus, had been meditating in a cave for 2 years, came back and saw the above chart, I suspect the thought would be "great buy opportunity".

I have updated my portfolio. It is almost completely sold out. Go to the Peters Portfolio page for details.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 6/3/20: See charts below

 XAO 7th March 20

 

SPX 6th Mar 20

XAO monthly 7th mar 20

 

 I have posted 3 charts. The 1st one is the the Australian market, it has fallen harder than the US. The XAO is down around 14% (1000 points) from its recent high and the SP 500 (the 2nd chart) is down around 12.5%. The US market could fall to major trend line support at 2700, which is another 9%, which at the current rate of fall for the Aussie market, is probably another 11%. However we have major trend line support at 6000, which is about 5% away so we may pull up there if the falls continue. The 3rd chart is the monthly chart of the XAO, there is impressive divergence between price and volume. The volume indicator is the Money Flow index (green line) using a 3 month period.

 Overall this is what I see, and bear in mind all we have is the present moment. The US and Australian markets are in a long term uptrend. I do not think we have entered a bear market, although this could happen. Volume and price support are in tact, particularly in the US. The Australian market has been hit harder because of our real or perceived over reliance on China. In hindsight you can see the topping patterns the indexes were showing a few weeks ago. However topping patterns do not always result in savage sell offs like this one, this sell off is driven by panic and uncertainty, more than fundamentals, even though I acknowledge the market was expensive and perhaps over bought.

During the week I went to a seminar on stock market cycles. Before this recent event I was of the view that we were in a late cycle bull market. Late cycle bull markets can have parabolic rises mixed with extreme sharp pullbacks. They then gather steam and march up again. This happened in 1998 when the market fell 18% mid year but then rallied 28% from the low to end the year in positive territory. The scare then was uncertainty about Russia's political and economic future, not dissimilar to the current China scare. If you want to read the historical article here is the link. Interesting to note the similar rhetoric about the world ending and a bear market.

https://money.cnn.com/1998/08/31/markets/marketwrap/

Of course many will remember the rallies in late 1998, 1999 and early 2000 before the dot com bubble burst, but before that huge profits were made. So in summary.

It is too early to tell what will happen. Charts look supportive. More falls would not surprise me, but if they come charts are even more supportive. No one has mentioned yet that this drama may play into the hands of Trump, his reelection chances and provide an ace up the sleeve for trade deal talks. 

All the best for the week, it may be another tough one.

Peter

 

 

 This chart below shows two volume indicators, the On Balance Volume and the Chaiken Money Flow (displayed in green) using a 13 week format.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 28/2/20: See chart below

 

XAO 28th feb 2020

Nasdaq Money flow

Well what a week, enough to test the best of us. In one the week the world has changed. We are all wondering when will the selling end and how serious is this? Is this as bad as the twin towers attack? Or the GFC? The answer: We do not know.

The Aussie market looks no where near as bad as the US, but we did not rally as much as what they did the last 8 months. Unfortunately, it all depends on that chart of the US SP500 and perhaps more so on the Nasdaq. A reason why I posted both those charts above. The SP500 price is sitting on support, but it could fall to the long term trend line at 2700, dragging our market down with it. The volume indicators on the XAO chart look strong, and although not shown on the SP500 chart, they look similar there too.

The Nasdaq looks very supportive. Both price and the 13 period Money Flow index sitting on support.

As I said in my email on Wednesday, the markets were over bought and looking for a reason to take profits, but now it's possibly developing into panic. Despite the pullback in my portfolio surprisingly I only have 2 sell signals, plus AD8 that I missed the alert on last week.  So if the markets continue to fall next week I will have to endure some more suffering. Lucky I am a Zen priest, as suffering is my speciality, but let me assure you, it isn't easy so don't feel bad if you feel bad!

Have a nice weekend and try not to worry. I will be following my system.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 21/2/20: See chart below

XAO 21st Feb 20

An interesting week. Big volume and the closing price for the week the same as last week. (give or take a few points) The CMF is still pointing down, but the OBV screaming up. What does that mean? My guess is uncertainty. In strong bull markets the non-believers and doom and gloomers are always looking for a reason not to buy, sell or short. This could be happening now. However, there is a fly in the ointment for the shorts. The Russell 2000 in the US has been a laggard in this market, but if you look at a monthly chart it looks to be changing its mind. It will be a very positive indicator for this bull market to continue if it can make a new  all time high, which is only a few percent away. The chart is below.

Russell Feb 20

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 14/2/20: See chart below

xao 14TH fEB 20

 This is a very strong market. How long it continues no one knows. One thing we do know, and is a fact that often surprises many people, is that bull markets and strong trends can last a lot longer than what many think. The chart above shows a slight volume divergence on the CMF (Chaiken Money Flow) indicator. Many traders and investors place far too much importance on indicators, they are a guide only and what needs to be remembered is that price is the ultimate indicator. So, the price is telling us that this market is going up. The bull filter is active, it's all go. As a beginner your focus should be on finding a system that suits you, one you feel comfortable with. If you have that process in place, your focus needs to be on developing your mind. The development of your thinking needs to go hand in hand with the development of your process.

It doesn't matter how strong any market is, if you do not have good process and good mindset, profits will ellude you.

Have a good week.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 7/2/20: See chart below

XAO 7th feb 2020

The market continues its' pullback. That is a strong close on this weeks bar. However! and don't ever forget this. One weeks price action does not make a trend. Now we are in stage 3 of the bull market, volatility will probably increase. Why? Because markets are driven by emotion. The fear of loss and the fear of missing out will dominate this market for the time being. When I say the time being, I mean until there is a clear sign this bull market is over. That sign has not yet come, so as emotionally difficult as it may be, your best option is to plan your trade and trade your plan.  Do I sound like a song stuck on repeat? Good. Repetition of good process is what this game is about. Have a good week, stay calm, stick to the system. Size your trade, buy the signal, sell the signal, repeat the process. Trading can be easy but we make it hard.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 31/1/20: See chart below

XAO 31st Jan 20

 

The market did pause a little this week. Does it listen to my comments or is everyone reading this web page?!

This market still looks very strong despite all the concerns. Are there not always concerns?

Volume indicators are up, price is up, bull filter active. It's a no brainer.

You know what to do. Follow the system and hold your nerve. If you are stressing you either have the wrong system (for you) or your position sizing is too large, or perhaps you have too few stocks creating portfolio volatility. A reminder the eBook system carries an average of 20 stocks, to spread risk and volatility.

Adjust, re think, re group, carry on, it's all just a process.

or ring 0403821523 for some coaching, before I run off to my cave again. That's always a strong chance.

Have a good week.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 24/1/20: See chart below

xao 24 jan 2020

The market rose a little this week. I notice the CMF volume indicator (in green) has double topped and is pointing down. However the OBV is still rising strongly.

A pullback or some sort of pause now would not surprise me, but either would more upward momentum. This is the problem with T.A. (Technical Analysis), which really means chart reading. It is just very difficult at times and also quite subjective. The CMF is not a strong indicator, it can take time for price to follow its lead, although it did give an early warning back in Aug/Sept 2018.

Dynamic bull markets challenge our nerve, but if you know your exit, and position size correctly, try and enjoy the ride, instead of stressing about when you will get off. The market will tell us when to get off, at the moment it is saying hang in there.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 17/1/20: See chart below

xao20th jan 20

 There is a Zen saying "if it is not necessary to say anything it is necessary to say nothing".

However for those of you that really need to read something, I have posted below what I wrote last week.

Well we have a breakout. I would like to see more volume, but a breakout is a breakout and sometimes we want more than what the market gives us. Many have been waiting for this breakout for confirmation of the bull market in Australia, so will those people now buy?

In my opinion we have entered stage 3 of the bull market. For those of you that do not know about market stage analysis, stage 1 is consolidation or a recovery from a bear market. Stage 2 is the "disbelief stage" or the stage when no one believes we have a bull market (I was writing about this a few years ago). Stage 3 is the strongest phase, where prices rise at rapid rates, big money can be made (or lost) and volatility increases. Examples of stage 3 markets would be the late 1990's before the tech crash and then a decade later during a few years in the lead up to the GFC in 2008.

What to do and how should you trade it? Guess what I will say next :)

Have a method and stick to it.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 10/1/20: See chart below

XAO 11 jan 20

Well we have a breakout. I would like to see more volume, but a breakout is a breakout and sometimes we want more than what the market gives us. Many have been waiting for this breakout for confirmation of the bull market in Australia, so will those people now buy?

In my opinion we have entered stage 3 of the bull market. For those of you that do not know about market stage analysis, stage 1 is consolidation or a recovery from a bear market. Stage 2 is the "disbelief stage" or the stage when no one believes we have a bull market (I was writing about this a few years ago). Stage 3 is the strongest phase, where prices rise at rapid rates, big money can be made (or lost) and volatility increases. Examples of stage 3 markets would be the late 1990's before the tech crash and then a decade later during a few years in the lead up to the GFC in 2008.

What to do and how should you trade it? Guess what I will say next :)

Have a method and stick to it.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 3/1/20: See chart below

 XAO 3RD JAN 20

Another short trading week of 4 days due to the new years day holiday. The index continues to trade sideways despite indexes overseas continuing to rally up. We go into the new year with uncertainty, but of course this is always the case in the markets. Think of the uncertainty that existed this time last year and then the year of great results that followed. Our resources sector is one to watch, particularly the gold market as the gold price has a run up. However some of the gold stocks are not responding as strongly as I would have thought, perhaps they are telling us the gold rally may slow soon?

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 27/12/19: See chart below

xao 27th Dec 19

 A quiet week this one, as is to be expected with the Christmas holidays. A reminder that although it is only a 3 day trading week, as is next week, they are still regarded as a weeks trading and the rules of weekly systems are to be followed accordingly. A fact there are no buy signals this week is a coincidence, it has nothing to do with the 3 day trading week.XAO 20th Dec 19

 This week the XAO went up with some hefty volume behind it. Well "its all happening" as those of you who remember Bill Laurie the excitable cricket commentator, would say. Lots of new 52 week closing highs this week, perhaps as a result of the Brexit and English situation settling. Also those of you that attended my ATAA lecture at Newcastle on Saturday 14th will recall me saying it seems more money is coming into the market. It has certainly been a dynamic year and great rewards for those that have stuck to their system. The eBook system is now sitting on 31% p.a for 2019 (more if you were compounding from the year before) and as of the end of this week, Peters Portfolio is up over 50% for 2019. I wonder how the year will end? I wonder how next year will be? Perhaps you could ask not why, but what? What is happening and what can I do about it? Remember my mantra from the eBook...... There are 2 reasons why traders do not make money from the market. 1/ They do not have a method 2/ If they have a method they won't stick to it. I can help you with both those in 2020. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 13/12/19: See chart below

XAO 13 Dec 19

 Well its hanging in there. A quiet week really. It looks like the conservative party in the UK have a decisive victory. As markets hate uncertainty I would think that this would be a confident booster for markets globally. In the short term I notice the FTSE 100 futures (top 100 in UK) has rallied. As I often say, time will tell on that one. Not many 52 week highs this week in the 300 as the XAO continues to consolidate. Most portfolios continue to track sideways to down, as some big trenders from early in the year get stopped out, a natural churning of the market as money reallocates into the next strong stocks.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 6/12/19: See chart below

XAO 6th Dec 19

The short term trend line of the OBV has broken, although it is short term, and it has not made a lower low. The CMF (green volume indicator) is on support. The Bull filter is active (just). I did say quite a few weeks ago I thought the market would go sideways a while until it was ready to move up again. Last week it looked like it was breaking up, but Donald stopped that by increasing uncertainty. Nothing we can do except hang in there and follow our systems for no one has any idea of what will happen next. That is the good part about having a committed method, while others flounder we just follow our rules.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 29/11/19: See chart below

xao 29 nov 19

The index rallies. However it seems to be mainly in the top 50. The smaller stocks not responding as well. So, if you are like me and have a lot of holdings in small and mid caps you are probably not seeing the gains. In saying that, I notice the Russell 2000, the mid cap index for the US (which are still gorilla stocks by our standard) has made a 52 week high. We keep hearing how the economy is struggling, but if you look at the XDJ, the Consumer stock index, it's going ballistic. So something does not stack up. Are people spending more than what the figures are showing? The market can be a leading indicator, perhaps the economy is due for an uptick. Have a look at the XPJ too. The property sector looks strong which also bodes well, as we all know the property sector drives our economy.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 22/11/19: See chart below

XAO 22 NOV 19

Is that a reversal bar for this weeks trading? One bar and one weeks trading does not make a trend. The XAO is above its Bull filter, volumes are up, trend is up. How are you going adopting a "don't know" philosophy about what will happen and sticking to the system? It was a lack lustre week really, on low volume, people are still nervous, anxiety rules, don't get caught up in it.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 15/11/19: See chart below

 XAO15 Nov 19

Last week I said: "So much doom and gloom persists in the news but the charts don't reflect this. The SP500 and the Nasdaq in the US continue to rally, it's only a matter of time before that positivity catches on here in Aus. A falling gold price bodes well for the markets in general, perhaps fear is subsiding and more confidence is creeping in about a US/China deal. Time will tell."

And a few weeks ago I said: "The overall market looks extremely bullish with a positive divergence between price and volume (the OBV)"

Well time didn't take long. The XAO has had a strong rally on good volume. Price and volume trend lines have been broken to the upside. Regular readers will know what I will say now.

Follow your system. If you don't have one, get one and stick to it. Its the best way to succeed in the market.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/11/19: See chart below

XAO 8th Nov 19

I mentioned a few weeks ago I thought the market (when I say the market I mean this index chart) needed to churn and perhaps go sideways a while. It seems to be doing that. Interesting to note their are 7 new signals in the eBook system this week, indicating the market has strength. The index chart above has been dragged down by the big 4 banks, Macquarie being an exception. So much doom and gloom persists in the news but the charts don't reflect this. The SP500 and the Nasdaq in the US continue to rally, it's only a matter of time before that positivity catches on here in Aus. Those holding gold stocks I hope have taken their stops, Peters Portfolio was stopped out of most gold stocks quite a few weeks ago, the gold price looks like it has further to fall....but as usual no predictions here! Just follow the system. I notice NCM has been stopped out from the eBook system. A falling gold price bodes well for the markets in general, perhaps fear is subsiding and more confidence is creeping in about a US/China deal. Time will tell.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 25/10/19: See chart below

xao 25th oct 19

 Despite the market index rising, this week ending 25/10/19 the eBook system fell 2.6%. Peters Portfolio fell 1.5% with some changes made last week (2 buys, 2 sells). The index gains were driven by the big 3 indexes, banks, resources and health. Tech fell. The eBook portfolio and my portfolio do not hold a lot of stocks in the 3 bullish sectors mentioned, so they suffered a pull back. The overall market looks extremely bullish with a positive divergence between price and volume (the OBV). Last night the Nasdaq broke up and out of a consolodation period which bodes well for tech stocks. I was saying to a client the other day this market could now really take off with many sectors chiming in for the rally. The strength of this market is not talked about much, doom and gloom persist, my experience is that means the market will run higher. We need irrational exubrance to exist in a big way before markets crash. We are not at that state of delusional thinking yet.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 18/10/19: See chart below

 

xao 18 oct 19

The market started the week well but faded into Friday. The longer term volume indicator of the OBV looks very positive, the shorter term 13 period CMF is sitting on support. The Bull filter is active and there are some signals this week, more than last week so stocks are still trending up. There seems to be some churning going on as the market goes through a consolidation period. I have discussed churning before. It is when there is indecision by traders and investors as to what sector to be in. Will resources rally, will gold recover, can tech and health stocks continue their march upward, is the consumer sector really that bad? It's all enough to drive one crazy. However consider this, if you buy stocks that are trending up and sell the ones that are trending down, do you really need to know what sector will rally next? We don't really need to know to follow the system, the churners will decide for us. They will sell the stocks they feel will fall more, and buy the ones they think will go up. What will we do? Buy the signal, size the trade, sell the signal, repeat the process. Too simple? That method has returned 57% in 21.5  months. Peters Portfolio had a small rise this week, I have posted the PDF on the Peters Portfolio page.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 11/10/19: See chart below

xao 11 oct 19

Last week I said this. "Personally I think the markets need a period of consolidation before the long term uptrend continues". This weeks bounce up on low volume may be confirming that thought, typical price action for a sideways period is up and down movement on low volume, which can mean "no conviction" from Bulls or Bears. That does not mean to say stocks won't trend because strong ones will continue to do so, like PNV this week. The bull filter is active , if you are wondering, but we have no signals (except WBA a takeover) so it's shut down the computer and come back next week.  Easy share trading. Peters Portfolio rose nearly 2% this week.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 4/10/19: See chart below

XAO 4TH OCT

Ha! So the CMF warning had some merit after all. The market falling, from concerns of global growth. The market climbs a wall of worry and how valid that worry is only time has the answer. Looking at the chart above volumes still look solid, they are trending up, and price is trending up too but the XAO has closed below the bull filter so we stand aside for the time being. We watch with interest and without judgement, helping our minds to remain calm. You have a system or method (hopefully) so focus on sticking to it, not predicting or getting caught up in too much analysing. Personally I think the markets need a period of consolidation before the long term uptrend continues. I have posted a long term monthly chart below, the trend looks impressive and volumes judged by the CMF even better. Peters Portfolio rose a little this week, bucking the markets downtrend. After 2 years of trading the portfolio is up 62% compared to the All Ords up 12.7%.

Monthly4TH OCT

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 27/9/19: See chart below

 XAO 27 9 19

Now it is getting interesting. The 13 week period CMF breaks the trend line to the upside negating the negative divergence I mentioned last week. OBV is still positive. Price holds. The trades in the eBook system this week are a perfect example of why I adopt the Zen philosophy of "Don't Know" and use probability NOT prediction. If you panicked and sold out last week because of the divergence in volume, you would be full of regret. If you are regretting something, let it go, move on to the next trade and put it down to lesson learned. Peter's Portfolio fell a little this week, around one third of a percent, so I am leaving the equity curve on that site page unchanged. Quite a few changes in my holdings this week as I re weight the portfolio.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 20/9/19: See chart below

XAO 20th sept 19png

A similar looking chart to last week. The price rises, OBV indicator confirms, but the CMF lags. That is a serious looking divergence between price and volume, but it is only ONE indicator. I could find another indicator to support the big volume bar of this week, shown in the volume column graph. This is an interesting little discussion, because it is what most traders do, look, analyze, worry and get confused. So it would be wise to fall back on what we know, and what we know is this: The market is trending up, Bull filter is active, alerts are generated to buy or sell. It's all a process and it can be a simple process if only we allow it to be.  Peters Portfolio had a stellar week rising nearly 5 %, helped along mainly by ALK.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 13/9/19: See chart below

XAO 13 sept 19

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 13/9/19: See chart below

XAO 13 sept 19

 This week the XAO continues its rise. The banks were the main drivers, and the resource heavyweights helped too, so the XAO looks good. However the mid cap sector fell, and Peters portfolio had a flat week, as it is mainly invested in mid caps. The chart above shows the OBV breaking the trendline but the CMF, using a 13 week period, is yet to confirm. As always, let us not read too much into this chart, the main thing is the bull filter is active and the market is trending up.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 6/9/19: See chart below

 XAO 6th sept

The XAO continues the recovery from the recent sell down. Volume indicators are approaching resistance points but we won't read too much into that because as always, the price is the main indicator. So, it is up, the bull filter is active, so we follow the process. Peters Portfolio rose around 1% and will be posted later this weekend or on Monday. There were no changes to it from last week. Have a good week. Peter.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 30/8/19: See chart below

 XAO 30 Aug 19

The Bull filter is active. Volumes are testing the upper levels of their trend lines. I think I said enough in last weeks market comments, and with the news letter this week.

"If it is not necessary to say anything, it is necessary to say nothing". A Zen saying.

"Stick to the system". A Peter Castle saying.

I wrote the above on Friday night, (it is now Sat morning) after some reflection I thought an explanation may be needed. The Zen saying refers to not falling into the trap of meddling, or thinking you need to meddle, when there is no need. As traders the greatest challenge is to stay removed from the crowd when negativity abounds. Often we feel we need to do something but often the best response is to do nothing. Or "sit on your hands" as some of the famous traders of the past have expressed.

As to the Peter Castle saying. I will repeat my teaching mantra. The two reasons why traders struggle to make money from the market is:

1/ they don't have a system or method

2/ if they do have a system or method they don't stick to it.

Your trading success or failure will revolve around one or both of those points.

Peters Portfolio will be updated on Saturday afternoon, I have not done the final calculations but it had another good week rising around 4%.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 23/8/19: (see 3 charts below)

 XAO graph 23 aug

 The XAO, dominated by the top 20 stocks, recovered a little this week. Volume indicators look weak, with the trend lines remaining broken to the downside. The bull filter for the eBook system is inactive. So our strategy is to stand aside and hold our nerve while the shakeout continues, which seems certain to happen as I know the US market had a fall on Friday so know doubt we will follow. The easy share trading systems had a good week, the eBook system rose 2.5 % and Peters Portfolio over 6% on the back of some good company reports, the Castle Fundamental Criteria doing its job well. It seems to be more of a stock pickers market at the moment, as the general euphoria of the recovery from Dec 18 slows, and fears become more intense. There are another 2 charts below with more comments.......

 XAO 2 graph 23 aug

 Last week I mentioned the longer term price trend line, I have drawn that 3 year line on the chart above, as well as a shorter term 2 year trend line on the influential OBV indicator. Now, this is important....if that OBV trend line breaks down it would indicate the probability of this Index to keep falling. It has already fallen to the first horizontal support line and could fall to the second one near 6200. Horizontal support lines are not as strong as sloping up trend lines, but the next sloping trend line of significance is at 5700 which is a long way from where we are now. One more chart below.........

SP graph 23 aug

 The chart above is of the US SP500, arguably the most influential chart in the world. Looking at the OBV indicator in the short term, ( a few months)  it looks like more falls will come. A revisit of the lows in May would not surprise me, considering we are now in the bearish seasonal period of May to October. However. Looking at the OBV trendline starting around April 18, it still looks quite supportive. I know that some market commentators are advising clients to sell up completely or go to significant levels of cash. I think it's a bit early to make that call as the charts above do not look that bad, as yet. Good traders work with the information we have in the present moment, and good traders do not allow the noise around us to govern our decisions. It will be an interesting week, stay calm. All the best, Peter.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 16/8/19: (see charts below)

xao 16 AUGUST

 The XAO keeps falling towards the 6400 mark, where I have drawn the blue horizontal support line. Volume indicators confirm the sell off. Horizontal support lines are not as strong as trend lines and the next trend line of significance is at 5900. (not drawn on chart) It is far too early to suggest the market will fall to that level but the chart above does look like more falls could easily happen. Support between 6200 and 6400 is my guess at the moment. The eBook systems trades posted above are hanging in there well, with no stops signalled this week. Peters Portfolio bucked the market trend and rose a litttle, an indication of the benefit of selecting stocks with good fundamentals. The Castle fundamental rules are taught to clients only and not discussed on this website. Although of course you do get to see what I am buying and selling. There were three sells and one buy this week in my portfolio and a slight raising of cash.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 9/8/19: (see charts below)

xao 9th aug19

 The XAO has fallen below the bull filter so there will be no more buying until it recovers. The OBV trend line has been penetrated to the downside but the CMF remains positive. The market has had a great recovery since the sell off late last year, when markets are high traders and investors get nervous and keep their fingers on the sell trigger. Donald Trumps comments through the week did the rest. It is too early to make a call about the market. This pullback is nothing in the big picture. All markets need to pause a while to decide which way they go next, to continue up, go sideways or sell. The market could fall to around 6400 and still be in a strong bull market so dont be surprised if we have some more volatility over the next few weeks or months. From a seasonal perspective the market often falls into Sept/Oct before it rallies into Christmas.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 2/8/19: (see charts below)

xao 2nd august

 The On Balance Volume is a slow indicator, but it normally gets it right, if divergence occurs between price and volume, they converge back. The OBV has not been confirming the recent rally of the XAO, it was heading down as price went up. However it need not be a big concern bearing in mind the XAO is dominated by big resource companies and the banks. The eBook system bucked the down trend, rising this week, helped by big rallies in NCM and TCL. Looking at the charts of the XAO and the volume, it does look as if a pullback is under way. How deep this will be is anyones guess, it may not affect stocks in the portfolios as the systems tend to steer away from the banks and big miners. Peters Portfolio fell a little this week, it has one more day to trade when I post it on Monday night. No new trades on either system, although NEA is showing a sell and will be let go next week.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 26/7/19: (see charts below)

 xao 26th july

 

 

The market rises again. The unseasonal performance continues. The CMF volume indicator is strong but the slower moving OBV is not confirming. However price is the ultimate indicator and we follow the price. The Bull filter is in full flight but most portfolios of mine and those of clients are not buying because they don't have any money to do so. With few stocks being stopped out it's just a matter of holding on for the ride. It looks like at the end of this month the market will make an all time closing high. We will find out on Wednesdays market close.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 19/7/19: (see charts below)

 

xao graph19th July

 Despite the strong close on Friday, and the CMF volume indicator breaking the short term trend to the upside, the OBV is reluctant to be positive. Never forget that this index reflects mainly the banks and resources, other stocks can be performing well despite what this index does. However this index is so widely watched that it does affect the mood of the market.

The eBook system stalled a little last week but Peters Portfolio had a good week, I will post the portfolio either Monday night or sometime Tuesday. A reminder that the eBook system trades only the ASX300 and Peters Portfolio trades a stock list created from the Castle Fundamental rules. Some of these stocks may be in the ASX300 and some may not. Stocks that are outside the ASX300 but meet the Castle Fundamental criteria are included in the list of stocks I trade. This list is made available to clients and students.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 12/7/19: (see charts below)

 XAO 12 Jun 19

 Not much to say this week. The market paused a little, perhaps respecting the indecision about volume and price, which I mentioned last week. It didnt stop the eBook system though, up another 1.3 % as strong stocks continue to trend up. Peters Portfolio pulled back a little, it holds different stocks to the eBook system. I will post the portfolio early next week, there were a few stocks sold and bought. Remember if you can to detach emotionally from what sells and buys, it's just a  process of buying strength and selling weakness.  Think like a football coach on the sideline, replacing weak or tired players with fresh stronger ones.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 5/7/19: (see charts below)

xao 5th july 19

The market rallies again but on low volume. The OBV (the black volume indicator) is not confirming the rally, note the flat lining of the trend line on that indicator where I have drawn a short blue line. However the shorter term volume indicator (the green CMF) is looking like a breakout. So as is often the case with indicators they can conflict and confuse. What to do? Price is the ultimate indicator. The price is up so we hold our positions. We reflect on our methodology and some of the time proven advice.

"Let winners run".

"The trend is your friend until it bends at the end".

and my favourite Zen saying

"If it is not necessary to do anything it is necessary to do nothing"

I have a very important chart for you to consider, in a week or so I will write a news letter about it. Those of you that follow my work will need no explanation. I will give you a clue, look what happened the last time the XAO made a new all time high. Now think about how the banks and resource stocks have been performing lately.

Monthly bull

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 28/6/19: (see charts below)

 market

Some caution this week as the market took a breath. The trend is up and volumes are good. Despite seasonal factors being against the market (Sell in May and go away tradition) and the sabre rattling from the US and Iran, the market continues to defy the bears and continue up. This weekend marks the end of the Australian financial year, the end of the 2nd quarter in the US (globally too) and the end of the month. I would expect some re-arranging of portfolios next week as traders and investors attempt to position themselves to be in the best stocks and sectors. We don't care what they do, we have a system that is working well so why change it? See you next week and stay calm, stick to your chosen method.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 21/6/19: (see charts below)

 

c

Well the eBook system continues to surprise even me! I knew it was a good system but boy its flying, up 5.6 % this week and outperfroming Peters Portfolio, maybe it's time for me to swap back to it :) It was helped along a lot this week by the gold stocks, goes to show you should just follow the signals as they come, the system will put you into the strongest stocks. The chart above of the XAO pulled back a little on Friday. My guess is because it is flirting with the old market high back in 2007 and the T.A. traders kicked in and sold the resistance point. There is now a divergence between price and volume, the CMF line is pointing down and the price up. But the OBV remains strong so its hard to say what it means. The price is well above the Bull filter line so one would "expect" a pull back or slow down, but I will repeat again what I said the last 2 weeks

" I think this market will surprise to the upside and there is a chance we will see a parabolic move up as we did during the tech boom of the late 1990's and the lead up to the GFC in 2006 and 2007. Lets hope we dont get the same ending. Its very interesting times and a great time to be in the market."

I also suggest you have a look at the property chart I posted in late May, scroll down to see it, the level is now 1643 up 2% from 1610.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 14/6/19: (see charts below)

 

 xao 14th June 19

" I think this market will surprise to the upside and there is a chance we will see a parabolic move up as we did during the tech boom of the late 1990's and the lead up to the GFC in 2006 and 2007. Lets hope we dont get the same ending. Its very interesting times and a great time to be in the market."

Thats what I wrote last week and this weeks price action indicates the probability of that statement has merit. No predictions here.........but this market is STRONG. Some consolidation now would not surprise me, but I wouldn't count on it. Trade your signals and stick to your method. The ride may get fast and volatile so stay calm, dont screen watch and if you don't already do so, adopt some calming modalities like meditation, walking, exercise, writing....whatever grounds your thinking.

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 7/6/19: (see charts below)

 

 XAO graph 7 june

A rebound in prices this week as the bull market continues. I think this market will surprise to the upside and there is a chance we will see a parabolic move up as we did during the tech boom of the late 1990's and the lead up to the GFC in 2006 and 2007. Lets hope we dont get the same ending. Its very interesting times and a great time to be in the market.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 31/5/19: (see charts below)

xao 31may

Last week I mentioned the CMF was pointing down indicating volume was not aligned with price action. The CMF continued to fall and the price of the XAO fell, affected by some of the bigger stocks giving back some after the post election rally. However it didn't bother the eBook system as it rose 1.4% bucking the trend. Why? The eBook system, because of the 52 week closing high, only buys stocks trending up. Sector analysis looks after itself as weak sectors tend not to trigger 52 week highs. The chart above still looks ok, the OBV (slower moving volume indicator) is still trending up. In the U.S. the influential SP500 continues to pull back from its double top but until we get any sell signals, which we are not, then it's STICK TO THE SYSTEM. If you are having trouble sticking to your method either your method does not suit you or you have some mindset issues to investigate. Email me or give me a call, first consult is free.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 24/5/19: (see charts below)

 Untitle

The XAO rose again this week as the Banks and Property sector went bananas after the LNP win. There are 2 volume indicators on the chart above, the OBV and the faster moving CMF. The CMF is showing a divergence to the price action. Now this could be a short term thing but it's worth watching cosidering the sudden jump in the dominant financial sector. Those of you that attended my seminars in Febuary and again last Sunday will remember the chart below. With the recent election, possible rate cuts, the property taxes off the table and the banks freeing up more money (apparently) the property market may be in for an upswing, the cycle certainly suggests it.

 

Property chart

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 17/5/19: (see charts below)

XAO graph 17 may

The market rallies from the short term sell off with good volume backing the move. The eBook system and Peters Portfolio put on nearly 4% each. A good week to be a trend trader. I will save any more comments for this Sunday at the seminar in Sydney. I am looking forward to meeting everyone and discussing this dynamic market we have at the moment.

 

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of 10/5/19: (see charts below)

XAO graph 10th may

The markets threw us a curve ball this week with Trumps tweets. However the double top has many nervous and it was an excuse to sell. The faster moving 13 period CMF warned a few weeks ago volume was receding, but the OBV looks supportive. The bull filter is still well in play. The eBook system churns a few stocks this week as it follows its process, sell weak stocks buy stronger ones. Simple is it not?

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of 3/5/19: (see charts below)

 

XAO 3rd May 19

 

Big volume this week, it was a full weeks trading compared to last week and also the end of the month. The eBook rose again this week despite the index falling a little. I notice in the US on Friday night the Russel 2000 broke up out of consolidation. To me this indicates more rises to come particularly in the mid and small cap shares. Interesting times.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 26/4/19: (see charts below)

 xao graph

 Price crashes past the old highs in August 18, on the way to the all time high of 6873 set way back in 2007. When markets are running like this they confound most market analysts, the reason why the great trend trader Ed Seykota quipped many years ago "The trend is your friend until it bends at the end". I assure you this trend will bend sooner or later but until then we let the market decide when to sell, and the plan is to hold our positions and be grateful.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 18/4/19: (see charts below)

 XAO graph 18thApril 19

 The Market rose again this week but volume is dropping and I notice some volatility in the smaller stocks and mid caps. After bagging the Gorilla stocks last week, this week they did well!......holding up the index. Traders and investors must be getting nervous as the index approaches the old highs in August 18. Many "expect" a sell off, it would seem probable, a pull back of some kind, however this market is strong and the US indicies continue to rise. The eBook system pulled back a little this week as its stocks has had a great run, so it took a breather. Volume is trending down signifying buyers could be drying up, for a while anyway, but really who knows with this market. Stay calm and stick to YOUR method.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 12/4/19: (see charts below)

 

 

xao 12TH aPRIL 19

The market rises again this week. The eBook system had a great week rising nearly 5%. That's a lot and it surprises even me. Peters Portfolio in comparison notched up a measly 2.5% but it does not include this coming Mondays trading. As you can see the XAO didnt rise that much so why the big gains? Because big gains are not in Gorilla stocks like banks, the gains are in low priced stocks with growth prospects, exactly what the eBook system targets by buying 52 week highs. Peters Portfolio does a similar thing but is a little more conservative. Look at the chart below, the XNJ is the industrials sector. Along with this sector and others like Health and Technology, these sectors are driving the market, not banks and not many of the Gorilla mum and dad stocks of old. 

XNI graph 12th April 19

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 5/4/19: (see charts below)

XAO graph 5th April 19

This weeks price action is arguably more negative than last weeks, however it was on small volume indicating sellers are not dominating. Volumes indicators are conflicting, the faster moving 13 period CMF is looking negative but the slower moving OBV is holding up. I was reminding myself this morning uptrends can last a lot longer than thought and surprise many, The US market continues to rise and we will follow despite the "expected" fall that may come here in the Aussie market. As hard as it is psychologically the best thing to do is stick to your system/method. Remember too the XAO is dominated by the financial sector, I encourage you to look at sectors like resources, health and particularly technology, where you will see more strength than what is displayed above. However investors mindset is often influenced by the overall market, the reason I display this chart with comments.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 29/3/19: (see charts below)

 XAO graph29 Mar 19

It was the most bearish week we have had since the recovery. The market fell below the lows of the last 3 bars, but it closed up quite strongly towards the end of the week. There is no warning sign yet from the volume indicators, one weeks price action does not make a downturn. At the moment (and that is all we have the present moment) the market is taking a breath. It's good to see because the more this market rallied up hard the greater the chance of a sell off to compensate. Trend traders hold your nerve.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 22/3/19: (see charts below)

xao graph 22 mar 19

Another good week for the systems. The eBook rose around 1% and so did Peters Portfolio which will be posted on Mondays close. It's looking like a classic V shaped recovery on the chart above. I spoke to a few trading clients this week that have been doing very well the last few years, why? They stuck to their system. My mantra remains the same, the two reasons traders fail is they don't have a method, if they do have one they don't stick to it. The technical side of trading is easy, the mental side is hard, thats why you need a method that suits YOU, your objectives and personality. Developing that system for you is my job.  Good luck next week.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 15/3/19: (see charts below)

 XAO graph 15 mar 19

Everyone is waiting for a pullback but we may not get one until this market reaches the highs set in August 2018. Then we still may not get a pullback.........its why I always say prediction is so difficult. Remember always that this index is often governed by the dominant stocks of finance and resources, mid cap stocks can power along without really affecting the look of the XAO. The index fell a little this week but the eBook stocks continued to rise, as did Peters Potfolio which will be published after Mondays close. This market continues to look strong, volume indicators are not weakening and there were a good number of new 52 week closing highs this week. Last week there were only a few, suggesting things were slowing but this week shows strength again with more new signals. TLS being a notable signal.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/3/19: (see charts below)

 

Xao graph 8 Mar 19

Is the market finally taking a pause? Not a lot of change this week. The OBV continues up but the CMF points a little down, price is flat. Next week will be interesting. Both the eBook system and Peters Portfolio had a good week rising 1.5%. 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 1/3/19: (see charts below)

 XAO graph 1st March 2019

What a difference a week can make. I often say PRICE is the ultimate indicator. Even though the volumes were looking a little weak last week, price has continued up, with now a lot of volume supporting the upmove. In fact price now is chasing volume, both the OBV and the CMF suggesting the price will go higher as they outpace the price. We know in the US on Friday the market had a rally so we would "expect" (nothing is certain) the XAO to rise as well on Monday. The US 500 is hitting resistance. It needs to break through 3 old highs to continue on and looks over bought on the daily charts. (see chart of US 500 below) The weekly chart looks stronger. (not displayed)

I have made a change to when I publish Peters Portfolio. It will now be published Monday nights to show the stocks bought and sold on that day as the majority of my buying and selling is done on a Monday. Thank you to those that logged in on Thursday night to the webinar. I may have missed some of your questions whilst I focused on the presentation. If so feel free to email me if you have any questions about the content discussed.

US SP500 graph 1st March 2019

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 22/2/19: (see charts below)

XAO 22nd feb 19As most people following technical analysis will say, the market looks over bought. Many signals are flashing warning, perhaps not so much for a fall but a slow down at least. The confusing thing is that I have agressive momentum systems that are signalling to buy the market. The chart above shows a negative divergence on the CMF between price and volume, this does not mean to say the index will fall or crash, but it is an indication (and that's all indicators are, indications) that perhaps the bulls are becoming less commited after the recent big rally. It makes sense as markets do not rise in a straight line forever, but this market is strong and could go on to meet the highs made back in August 18 sooner than later. So what to do? As usual it comes down to following the method you have selected to suit your mindset and objectives. (if you don't have a method get one) The eBook system has had a stellar run since entering the market again 6 weeks ago, putting on almost 9% from its cash out lows. Going into March portfolios will now be supported with coming dividend payments. Will the index of the XAO looking overbought slow the strong trending stocks? I am not sure it will but time will tell.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 15/2/19: (see charts below)

 

XAO graph 15 Feb 19

The index takes a breath. But its a misleading chart because its dominated by the financials which fell this week. Many stocks continue to rocket as is indicated by the rally in the eBook system this week as well as the good performance of Peters Portfolio, the small and mid cap system . For example look at the chart below of the materials sector, a sector without the financials. A much stronger looking chart and the volume indicators confirming the upmove. However we dont need to do sector analysis too much, the 52 week highs will tell us where the strength is. That's why you havn't seen a 52 week high in many banks because they lack strength. Trend trading is about buying strength and selling weakness. Simple.

XMJ graph 15 Feb 19

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 8/2/19: (see charts below)

 XAO 8th Feb

Well. It goes to show you should follow the trend. A big week and those that had the courage to buy a few weeks ago when the signals came are being rewarded. The OBV has kicked up but  the CMF lags a little, a big volume bar though supports the bullish move up. I notice many comapnies are reporting strong results indicating the long term bull market has perhaps legs yet. Its been quite a recovery from the lows only 7 weeks ago indicating how oversold the market was. For many traders they will be feeling confused and frustrated as the fear of loss is replaced with the fear of missing out. If thats one of you I suggest you work on getting a good method...........and sticking to it.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 1/2/19: (see charts below)

XAO 1st Feb 2019

This week volume is up but price slightly down. To me (and each persons view is subjective) the chart above shows uncertainty and reserve. The US SP500 has now reached the 61.8 Fibonacci level of around 2700 points surpassing the 50% point. I have never been a fan of Fibonacci however many traders put great store in it perhaps making it a self fulfilling prophecy. The markets have had a strong rally off its lows, a pause, consolidation or drop back is due. However if this does happen, and it might not,  this may not stop the strong trending stocks from still out performing, which of course is the whole idea of trend trading as we hopefully position ourselves in only those stocks that are rising.....and have a good probability of continuing to do so.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 25/1/19: (see charts below)

Xao 25 Jan

The recovery on the Aussie market continues. The US market did have a pause this week(but I write this with one more trading day to go in the U.S. for this week). Volume on the XAO has picked up, as can be seen by the volume bar plus the CMF has now broken its down trend line to the upside. However the OBV is not confirming the rally, still flatlining despite the price rising. Its not a big concern but an indication that buyesr are still cautious not convinced this is a recovery but a bear market rally. The eBook system will be all in next week, my own portfolio is flatlining as I wait for my systems mid cap bull filter to kick in, as it has not done so. The recovery is more in the top 300 so far. I have taken the time out to do some more testing and developing on monthly systems, and prepare for the Feb lecture at the ATAA in Sydney.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 18/1/19: (see charts below)

XAO 18 Jan 19

The XAO has another rally this week on lowish volume. Investors are cautiously buying back in although some stocks are rocketing as can be seen by looking at the charts of the 52 week high signals above. Looking at the US market (chart below of the SP500) one would think a pause would happen soon now that it has pulled back up over 50% from the low to the high. The problem is that's a subjective statement and no one knows what will happen.....however we do have probability to work with which is the best tool.  The challenge with trading is following your system, experienced traders know that. So is this a recovery in a bull market or a bear market rally? I think it's the former and time will tell.

Fib

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 11/1/19: (see charts below)

 XAO 11 Jan 19

Ok. The rally I suggested last week has come and the eBook filter is in buy mode. I posted some extra comments about the eBook above this XAO chart, I suggest you read it if you have not done so. Volume is low this week. I am not sure if this is because some investors/traders are still in holiday mode or if there is another reason. OBV has broken a short term trendline to the upside but I wouldnt get too excited about that. The CMF looks postive but yet to break its downtrend line. Despite what we read into the chart above (and we will all see something different) the fact is the eBook system is saying buy. If you are following this method its challenging emotionally to buy after the pullback of the last few months. However if you have chosen to trade a mechanical system, its part of the commitment.

My system in Peters Portfolio trades a slower Bull filter. It has not yet given a signal to buy. Now...this is not because my system is "better" than the eBook. It's because I have been trading that filter for many years and I do not want to change it. Regular readers will know my philosophy of pick a system and stick to it! 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 4/1/19: (see charts below)

XAO 11 Jan 19

Post holiday trading returns to normal next week, the past 2 weeks have been reduced volume so price action could be regarded as less telling. A good week could put the XAO back in buy mode if it can cross above the eBook Bull filter moving average marked in red. The filter has kept many from buying for 14 weeks now, as the market goes through its correction. I seem to be the only one not calling this a bear market. Until long term trendlines are broken to the downside I still see this as a correction. Looking at a daily chart of the US market (posted below) I notice it has made a short term technical breakout to the upside, next week will be interesting, a big rally would not surprise me.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 28/12/18: (see charts below)

XAO 28 Dec

The XAO fell to the 5500 area I had been talking about for weeks, in fact it hit 5478 as the low. Very low volumes because of the holiday break (only 3 days trading) but price action is significant. US markets bounced off long term monthly trend lines I talked about in my last newsletter. Click on the link below if you missed it. This may be the start of consolidation before the next rise, or it could be a pause in the falling. Its wait and see and let the market tell us what the future holds.

http://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/products-and-services/archive/listid-1/mailid-142-a-line-in-the-sand

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 21/12/18: (see charts below)

XAO 21 Dec 18

 The XAO has reached the 5500 level I have been talking about for some time, US markets are on long term support lines too like our local market is. This market looks oversold to me, volumes still look supportive long term as shown by the trendline of the OBV. It has come back to the breakout area it had a few years ago. The breakout that started the euphoric stage that is now correcting. Try and remember (always) that markets are driven by emotion more than fundamentals or technicals. Attempt to detach from your pain and look at whats happening in a removed state of mind. You will see it all so much more clearly.

 

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 14/12/18: (see charts below)

 

 

 

 The above chart was posted after 2 days trading of the week, so I posted in on the 19/12/18 before Wednesdays trading. However not a lot has changed from last week.

The market looks to be seeking the 5500 level particularly with US markets continuing to fall. Last weeks CMF indicator shown in the chart below

has now broken its short term trend line to the downside. Longer term the market looks well, we just have to sit out this correction.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 7/12/18: (see charts below)

 

Not a lot has changed this week. Volume indicators have kicked up a little, this "feels" and looks like a bottoming process,

however with the continual falling of the US markets our market wont go anywhere. In fact we may visit 5500 sooner than later.

It might take this to exhaust the sellers. The chart below shows again the US500, its a daily chart so we cant read too much

into it. Fridays reversal of price now makes the chart look like it wants to fall more, despite volume indicators suggesting

support. Its wait and see.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 30/11/18: (see charts below)

 

Volume picks up and the price falls a little. OBV verifies what I said last week, buyers are on the sidelines waiting. The 13

week CMF indicator looks stronger, its a slower moving indicator, however it does show good support in the longer term.

It would not surprise me to see the index reach down for the 5500 region, it may only be for a day or two but perhaps we

need to do that to exhaust the sellers. This is a correction, not a bear market. Once sellers are exhausted the

balance of power (emotion) will change to buying and the market will rally. The US market (see chart below) looks stronger

but thats been the trend for years.  The Australian markets big 3 sectors, banking, resources and property all underperformed

this week.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 23/11/18: (see charts below)

I have posted 3 charts this week, lets look at the one above first. A concern is the breakdown of the OBV trendline, even

though the 13 period CMF looks much more supportive. Its not a good sign that the OBV has broken down, it often indicates

more falls. Lets look at the 2nd chart.

Below you can see a longer term chart, I have drawn the longer term trend lines on it. There is long term support around

5500, this market could fall to that level before regaining the uptrend. We are not in a bear market, not yet, it would need

to fall below the trendline at 5400 for a bear market to really take hold. Scroll below for the 3rd chart.

I have posted again the US 500. Its a daily chart and you can clearly see the divergence between price and indicators,

although volume is not strong, its not weak either. Daily charts lead the weekly charts, and weekly charts lead the monthly,

so this positive looking daily chart could produce a strong performance next week in the US.

It appears to me there is indecision as if to buy this market or not. Whilst the indecision remains, downside out weighs the

upside.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 16/11/18: (see charts below)

The market reverses this week after two up weeks. The volume indicators are hanging in there. The eBook system buy filter

is keeping traders of that system out of the market, which may prove to be the best strategy. Peters Portfolio continues to cash

up with another stock sold this week. This week I have posted below a chart of the US  SP500. It's in a daily format and you

can see last nights trading (their Friday) shows an up bar with volume supporting the rise. The Australian market correlates

closely to this index and if it holds up ours should too.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 9/11/18: (see charts below)

The market continues to recover from the sell off. I notice now market commentators are saying it was irrational and over

done, I didnt hear that 2 weeks ago! Ignore the news, trade your method. The volume indicators above are suggesting the

index has more to rise next week. Peters Portfolio had another strong recovery week. Two new 52 week highs in ASX 200

this week, a good sign confidence is returning.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 2/11/18: (see charts below)

Well we got the bounce the volume and price indicators were suggesting. I have gone back to a weekly bar chart, it shows

this weeks price action more clearly than the line chart. I would have liked to have seen a stronger week, but considering

the Aussie market jumped out of the gates before the U.S. did, it was a good week. Peters Portfolio bounced even better,

it has more cash now in reserve, to either sit out further falls or buy into stocks as they trigger. I notice the rhetoric from

some market commentators is already changing, saying that things may be not be as bad as first thought. Ignore all talking

heads and trade your method. No one knows.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 26/10/18: (see charts below)

 

So it's been a horrible 2 weeks (if you are long the market, great if you were short) let's look at a longer term chart first to

see if it is as bad as some people are thinking. The monthly chart above shows the long term price of the All Ords still trending

up, with the long term blue trend line still rising.

The two volume indicators the CMF (displayed in green and adjusted to a 3 month period to reflect the monthy scale)

and the OBV (in black) are showing a positive divergence, (price down but volume still holding up) It could verify what I said 2 weeks ago,

sellers seem non commited, now let's look at the weekly chart.

The price of the All Ords has come down to the blue horizontal resistance line. My experience is that horizontal resistance lines are

not as strong as trend lines, so it could fall below that line, but then it has the monthly up trend line to meet, as shown in

the monthly chart above. The CMF has been adjusted back to a 13 period, as it is normally displayed. Both weekly volume indicators reflect

what the monthly chart does, price falling but positive volume dvergence. There are 3 trading days left to the end of the month, to

me the probability of a rally outweighs the probability of more falls, but it's wait and see, we are not in the game of prediction, so the best

thing as always, is stick to YOUR plan.

 

 

 

 

 MARKET COMMENTS: As of 19/10/18: (see charts below)

 

The XAO has a small bounce this week. Hopefully you have not been stopped out of too many positions. If you have,

they dont deserve to be in your portfolio. I am having server problems, some of you may not have received my newsletter

last week, click on the link from last weeks comments below, to access it.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 12/10/18: (see charts below)

 

 

Tonight I sent a newsletter, you can read it here.

http://www.easysharetradingsystems.com.au/products-and-services/archive/listid-1/mailid-140-spring-falls-but-flow-remains

The market has price and volume sitting on support. For those that believe in the Bull market its a great time to buy. Those

volume indicators above on the chart look very strong, this could be the correction we had to have before the next rally.

Peters Portfolio, like everyones got smacked this week, down around 4.5%. However only one stock is giving a sell signal which

is a good sign. I notice Nick Radge put an email out today too, saying his portfolios were down between 8 and 14 %, there is

always someone worse off than yourself! Last week the Bull filter worked a treat, not allowing any buying before the big fall.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 5/10/18: (see charts below)

 

The XAO continues to flounder a little. The eBook system filter wanting us to wait. 52 week highs are mainly in the resource stocks,

reflected in the 2nd chart above of the XJR. Those not using a bull filter can buy, those that are wont. It's important to make your

decision about filters and stick to it. Sometimes bull filters  make you miss a trade, but they can also save your backside if the market

turns south quickly.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 28/9/18: (see charts below)

 

The market recovers slowly. The bull filter is in positive mode. Volumes look to be confirming the trend. Nothing more to

say except follow your method. If you don't have a method, seriously consider getting one. The last 4 weeks were a testing time for some,

particularly those without solid rules. Peter's Portfolio rose a little, around 0.4%, it will be posted on the site in a day or two.

It's up 20.5% in 11 months, which is line with the back testing. It's always heartening to see portfolios perform in line with the testing.

Not all portfolios perform in line with back testing, mainly because  of the different start dates. Two traders using the same system will often

get different results, as their portfolios differ. This is a good thing, as if everyone had the same start date, and so the same stocks, they

would be competing for the same buys and sells, limiting opportunity. Whatever system you trade it takes patience and discipline.

Keep good records, execute the process to the best of your ability. Until next week. Peter.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 21/9/18: (see charts below)

Volumes are back and price rises. The OBV looks very strong, the CMF still a little weak. The eBook system is still waiting to buy,

next week may bring confirmation of what to do, wait more or buy. In the mean time most stocks are holding. No trades this

week for Peters Portfolio and there will be none next week either, which is great, it means stocks are trending and nothing to

do except let the process take care of itself. Stick to the system. Peters Portfolio rose almost 1% this week as the market

rose 0.4%.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 14/9/18: (see charts below)

The XAO has a quiet week. Volumes are low. The OBV is holding up well and  the CMF volume indicator (13 week

period) while looking bad is just confirming what we know. Price and volume have fallen. The bull filter for the eBook

system is still saying step aside and wait. Very few new 52 week highs this week as the market rally takes a breather.

Peters Portfolio had a good week, making a new equity high and rising around 2.5% helped along by some dividends.

 

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 7/9/18: (see charts below)

The XAO fell this week, below the eBook Bull filter, so its stand aside for those using that method. Volume support remains

with both the OBV and the CMF (13 period) holding up. Looking at the chart above the recent sell off looks like its overdone,

a panic on low volume. However we are not in the game of predicting but responding, so dont second guess the market. As I

always say, trade your method and be as detached as possible. Next week will be interesting. Peters Portfolio held up very well

this week, a main contributor being NST with its merger announcement.

MARKET COMMENTS: As of 31/8/18: (see charts below)